The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued an update on the weather patterns affecting Northern Ohio and Northwest Pennsylvania, anticipating various conditions through this weekend. A cold front is expected to traverse the region Saturday morning through the afternoon as a low-pressure system makes its way northeastward from Lake Huron toward the Gulf of Saint Lawrence. Behind the front, a ridge is building, with an embedded high-pressure center moving towards Southern Quebec, bringing some potential stability to the weather during Sunday.
The NWS Cleveland forecast notes a near-term mixture of sunshine and continued low-level warm air advection, which should allow daytime highs to reach into the 60s and 70s today. However, a southeastward gradient in temperatures is expected. Moving into tonight, partially clear skies will welcome cooler temperatures, dipping into the mid-30s to upper 40s come dawn on Sunday.
Saturday morning's report includes the description of a cluster of multicell showers and thunderstorms moving east-northeast across the service area, as the system encounters elevated CAPE, which is the measure of the potential energy for storms, amidst moderate to strong bulk shear. The approaching system has already shown signs of potency, with such events earlier reported in the metropolitan Indy area, where gusts peaked at 60 to 70 mph. In contrast, Muncie, IN, saw wind gusts ranging from 30 to 40 knots.
Despite the fast movement of these systems, which generally limits flooding potential, the outlook remains cautious. It is predicted there will be a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms into this afternoon, particularly for the area extending from Wattsburg, PA, to Upper Sandusky, OH, and points toward the southeast. "Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms should increase in coverage from WSW to ENE the rest of this morning through midday," according to the NWS Cleveland forecast. Although the confidence in severe thunderstorm occurrence is low, a few storms could produce hail up to the size of quarters, and straight-line wind damage could also be a concern.
High pressure is expected to dominate early next week, offering drier conditions for Sunday night, but that's set to change as a warm front moving from the Ohio Valley could increase rain chances Sunday night into Monday. On the maritime side, Lake Erie is experiencing elevated winds ahead of the cold front, but conditions are expected to calm as winds align westwardly in the afternoon. Nonetheless, lake-goers and marine activities must heed the transition, particularly as the front may introduce fog before winds shift to a northerly flow tonight and easterly on Sunday.
