Baltimore residents should prepare for a mixed bag of weather conditions this week, with an increasing chance of rain, thunderstorms, and a potential flood watch in certain areas. According to an early morning forecast discussion by the National Weather Service, Baltimore, MD/Washington, DC, high pressure sliding northeast today will be followed by an upper-level low approaching from the southwest through Wednesday. This will lead to a slow but steady advecting of moisture northward, generating rain across the region, particularly near the Blue Ridge.
Despite the high pressure, Baltimore and northeast MD may not see significant rainfall until Tuesday morning as they're closer to the ridge. The advance of thicker clouds has caused the high temperatures for today to possibly reach the upper 70s to near 80, conditions that were initially thought to come later. The southwestern corner of the forecast area will experience cooler temperatures, hovering in the mid-60s to the lower 70s. Moving into the evening, the National Weather Service has issued a flood watch for areas bordering the Blue Ridge due to expected heavy rains, which will slowly build up across the region through Tuesday evening.
Subsequent days won't provide much respite, with showers and isolated thunderstorms forecast to continue into Wednesday night. Describing the conditions, the National Weather Service stated that they expect "average totals of 1 to 4 inches" of rain, with the highest amounts likely in the vicinity of the Blue Ridge. In addition to this extended period of rainfall, the vulnerability to flooding is elevated following recent weather history in the region.
Into the weekend, a short break in gloomy weather seems likely as the upper-level low gets sheared out over the Northeast United States on Thursday. This clearing is predicted to result in milder temperatures and potentially some sunshine, warming things up with highs reaching the upper 70s to low 80s. That said, the area still has the chance to be hit by showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon. Come Friday, an upper-level low from the west approaches, which could possibly spawn strong to severe thunderstorms as the Gulf of America pushes not just moisture, but warmer hot air across the Mid-Atlantic.
For those more concerned with near-term implications, the aviation forecast suggests deteriorating conditions later today, with the potential for heavy rain spreading across the region tonight into Tuesday. "IFR conditions likely set in tonight," the National Weather Service warned, suggesting visibility and flight conditions may be significantly affected. A small craft advisory also goes into effect on Tuesday for all Maryland waters, with advisories likely continuing into the night.
Finally, regarding potential coastal flooding, sensitive shorelines could experience minor tidal flooding between Tuesday and early Thursday as onshore flows build up anomalies in water levels. The situation remains fluid, offering a period of uncertainty and vigilance for residents and services across Baltimore and beyond.
