The Greater Baltimore area is experiencing a dynamic shift in weather patterns as a cut-off low-pressure system traverses from the Great Lakes towards New England this weekend. According to the National Weather Service (NWS) in Baltimore, Maryland, this system stimulates a series of showers and thunderstorms that could produce gusty winds and perhaps some small hail. Although these stormy conditions were more restrictive earlier, they have weakened and stratified for the time being, an update posted early Saturday by the NWS indicates.
A trailing cold front is expected to follow, likely to pass through the region and promptly shift the severe weather threat eastwards. The changeover may happen earlier than initially forecasted, potentially limiting convection in central and eastern locales. In the wake, gusty winds emanating from the west to northwest are predicted to increase, a likely enough phenomenon to maintain existing Wind Advisories in the central Appalachian high elevations. Temperatures have also been re-evaluated. The NWS anticipates cooler, drier air pushing in will lower the highs today from the middle to the upper 80s to slightly cooler conditions.
Looking into the short term, high pressure makes its presence felt, with a much-appreciated respite on Sundays and Mondays following an active week marked by humidity and severe weather. Residents can anticipate a dry spell with seasonable temps, the highs settling in the mid-70s, and lows about the lower to middle 50s.
As we venture into the workweek, Tuesday continues the trend of dry conditions; however, a shift in easterly winds may lead to "increased cldcvr," as detailed in the NWS briefing. The pleasant reprieve seems short-lived because a shortwave trough is projected to move in by Wednesday, introducing the possibility of heavy rain, particularly due to the recent spate of flooding rains. By then, falling temperatures into the mid-60s to low 70s and contending with another bout of rainfall could evoke more flood risks due to antecedent conditions in place.
Marine conditions also reflect this tempestuous change, as Small Craft Advisories are called for from 11 AM through 11 PM EDT today, ahead of the front. Once the cold front has cleared, the maritime forecast calls for conditions to settle down Sunday, into Monday, with winds dropping out of the Advisory range. Come Tuesday, though, as winds shift north to easterly, mariners can expect rain and potentially stronger winds Wednesday, with Special Marine Warnings on the horizon if needed.
For aviation, flights early Saturday morning could face turbulence as gusty thunderstorms move over the terminals ahead of the cold front. VFR conditions could briefly become MVFR regarding ceilings, alerts the forecast. This shift will bring gusting winds up to 30 knots later in the day, continuing into Sunday when the skies clear up post-frontal passage.
