Owing to a low pressure system trekking into the region, residents across Cleveland can expect a week filled with intermittent showers and an unsettled weather pattern. The National Weather Service in Cleveland has released a forecast discussion detailing the weather conditions likely to continue through the weekend.
The weather disruptions, which began on Tuesday, May 20, 2025, are brought on by an upper level trough maintaining its grip over the area. Transitioning to mid-week, showers will become more scattered after midnight Wednesday, while temperatures throughout Tuesday and Wednesday will remain in the upper 50s to upper 60s. The southeast zones will receive as much as an inch and a half of total rainfall through Wednesday. Positioned to the west and heading east below the region, the associated surface low will keep the main thunderstorm threat south of the Cleveland area.
Heading into the "short term" from Wednesday night through Friday night, the surface low will continue its gradual eastward course, settling near the Mid-Atlantic Coast by Friday. Despite shortwave upper-level troughs moving through the area, bringing additional precipitation, total accumulation for most of the area is estimated between 0.25-0.5 inches. The passage of the low and areas of subsidence directly east over the area might offer a short respite from the rainfall on Thursday night. With a northwest flow developing over the subsequent surface trough Friday night, "weak lake induced instability" could cause lake-enhanced rain showers, given the contrast between the 850mb temperatures, ranging from -1 to 0 °C, and the relatively warm lake temperatures of 14 to 15 °C.
As per the NWS Cleveland Aviation forecasts, flight conditions are anticipated to worsen with MVFR ceilings dropping to IFR due to extensive shower activity. When all terminals become engulfed in the rain later in the day, visibility will remain primarily at MVFR levels. Marine conditions, too, will feel the force of the northeastern winds strengthening to 15-25 knots. This spike in winds is expected to heighten waves to 4-6 feet, particularly affecting Lake Erie's central and western basins. A Small Craft Advisory will hold through Wednesday, highlighting the cautious conditions for marine travel.
The weather's tumultuous nature is slated to continue into the weekend. Lake Erie's surface trough is predicted to decelerate eastward, potentially prolonging conditions conducive to showers, especially in the eastern portion of the NWS coverage area. However, any shower activity is anticipated to lessen, avoiding a full washout. Tentatively, conditions should improve over the weekend, with a weak high pressure system expected to bring drier weather by Sunday into Monday. Uncertainty does linger over the exact timing of this transition, hence the forecast includes a "slight chance to chance shower mention through Monday."
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