As the skies over Baltimore continue to be peppered with precipitation and the threat of thunderstorms looms, Baltimore's weather remains under the watchful eye of the National Weather Service (NWS). A persistent frontal boundary stubbornly clings to the area, bringing daily showers, thunderstorms, and the potential for flash flooding through early next week. While the city anticipates less storm coverage today and Monday, central Virginia is expected to bear the brunt of the activity, as stated in the NWS Baltimore/Washington forecast.
For today in Baltimore, much like a temperamental guest that lingers too long, the stalled front sits near the Potomac River, enticing bits of upper-level energy to travel along its path. This results in a decrease in storm activity for the Baltimore region, but not complete peace, as isolated storms are still expected to develop in the afternoon and persist past sunset. "Storms will fuel off of MUCAPE values of 500-100 j/kg with 0-6 km shear values under 35 kts," the NWS report outlined, foreboding potential rainfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour in affected regions. The NWS also implies that air quality may take a hit due to smoke from southern New Jersey wildfires, which could drift over metropolitan areas.
For those venturing out in Baltimore today, the temperature struggle is real. The mercury will likely falter in its climb, barely reaching into the 70s in some areas. Our southern neighbors in the Shenandoah Valley and the VA Piedmont, shielded by the front, may bask in the 80s. As the impasse between warring weather fronts drags into the work week, Monday sounds more like the same, with hints of the maritime chill from the New England coast continuing to wedge itself downward into the daily Baltimore narrative.
Looking toward the middle of the week, a change in the weather forecast is anticipated. The NWS advises that a warm front will finally usher the lingering boundary northward as of Tuesday. The much-anticipated heat and humidity will arrive on Wednesday, with temperatures set to climb into the 90s and a heat index creeping near the century mark. "When combined with dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices may approach 100 on Thursday," the forecast warns. With thunderstorms likely to bubble up in the building heat, threats of severe weather ladder up the risk chart as the week progresses.
As Baltimore's residents and visitors brace for various weather phenomena, the maritime community will not be spared its share of the brunt. NWS forecasts hint at Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds at times with a blanket of marine fog and precarious weather conditions possibly affecting nautical navigation. The marine forecast echoes the sentiment of instability hanging around until late in the week when a strong cold front is predicted to sweep away the remnants of this unsettled pattern, hopefully leading to calmer waters and clearer skies.
