Honolulu residents and visitors can expect a mix of weather conditions in the coming days, as a weakly unstable cloud band associated with the remnants of an old East Pacific cold front lingers over the islands. According to the National Weather Service in Honolulu, an upper level disturbance near Kauai is contributing to enhanced shower activity, which is projected to persist during the overnight to early morning hours through Monday morning. However, daytime conditions are anticipated to show improvement, signaling more stable weather patterns ahead.
The long cloud band is expected to clear the island chain before noon HST today, with a decrease in daytime shower trends following suit. In the upper levels, the area will remain under the influence of a weak upper low just west of Kauai, which will be the catalyst for cloud height lifting across the region into Friday. "Shower trends will tend to favor the typical windward and mountain areas in the overnight to early morning hours," the National Weather Service indicated. Nonetheless, beginning on Monday, a transition to a more stable environment is forecasted as an upper level ridge takes over and temperature inversion heights drop.
Winds are expected to stay breezy from the east into the night but will start to ease on Friday. This is because a high-pressure system north of the islands is weakening as a low-pressure system moves across the North Pacific. Over the weekend, we’ll likely see a mix of trade winds and sea breezes. This could bring a few brief afternoon showers over the interior parts of the islands due to lingering weather patterns and wind shifts, as reported by the National Weather Service.
Mariners are advised to exercise caution as the Small Craft Advisory remains effective until 6 AM HST Friday for certain waters surrounding the islands. "Moderate to locally strong trades will gradually ease today, becoming gentle to fresh by Friday," the National Weather Service report advises. In terms of surf, a long period south southwest swell is on the rise, anticipated to peak over the weekend and could potentially meet the High Surf Advisory threshold, before gradually subsiding early next week.
For aviation, a cloud band drifting westward through the Hawaiian archipelago is likely to maintain showers, especially over mountainous and windward areas. As per the National Weather Service report, "Brief MVFR conditions are possible in showers this morning." Plus, an ash plume from Kilauea volcano, initially detected Wednesday night, has since decreased in intensity and altitude. AIRMET Tango for low-level moderate turbulence over and around the island mountains will likely be canceled tonight as trade wind speeds start to drop off.
