Pittsburgh and its surrounding regions are preparing for a mix of weather conditions, with the National Weather Service in Pittsburgh forecasting a weather pattern to continue into next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop south of Pittsburgh through Friday, while areas to the north may enjoy drier and more seasonable weather. The National Weather Service's latest bulletin states that "a Flood Watch for flash flooding was issued for most of northern WV from 2pm-midnight tonight; this coincides with WPC`s Slight Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook."
In terms of what we're seeing on the ground today, the frontal passage supporting thunderstorms south of Pittsburgh also brings a risk for flash flooding. High rainfall rates and the existing saturation of the ground heighten this risk. Based on increasingly saturated grounds, high PWATs, and potential for some storm training as the surface boundary becomes parallel to upper flow, a Flood Watch is necessary, the National Weather Service advises.
As we move into Friday and Friday night, the short-term forecast indicates that while scattered thunderstorms may persist in northern West Virginia, areas to the north of the stalled boundary should experience dry weather and seasonable temperatures. However, the weather service warns that localized flash flooding remains possible due to the very moist environment and the fact that the boundary is stalling parallel to upper-level flows.
Looking ahead from Saturday through Wednesday, we're not out of the wet woods yet. Ensemble models suggest that we should brace for the continuation of widespread convection starting Saturday. While exact timings and coverage of storms remain uncertain, warmer, moist air mass conditions signal an increased risk of flash flooding, especially in southeast Ohio, towards Tucker County in West Virginia. And in the long term, "The active pattern is favored to continue Sunday into next week," according to the National Weather Service.
For those flying, aviation interests will also be affected by the varying weather, with a mix of MVFR to IFR stratus expected in the early hours, and more thunderstorms possible in the afternoons and evenings. This could lead to temporary flight restrictions at regional airports, such as those from Pittsburgh to Morgantown, West Virginia. While no specific advisories have been posted yet for Pennsylvania and Ohio, a Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of West Virginia from the afternoon through this evening.
