The National Weather Service of Pittsburgh has issued an update on the local weather, indicating that residents can expect scattered showers and thunderstorms as a front makes its way across the region and stalls to the south. According to the weather forecast, the stalled front is predicted to lift northward again next week, prompting intermittent showers and thunderstorm chances for much of the upcoming week.
For those planning their Sunday activities, the forecast suggests it will be mostly dry with overnight lows staying above average. Despite the anticipated scattered showers and potential thunderstorms, the exact trajectory of the weather is marked with high uncertainty. Early morning convection could see a few stronger storms make their way into Northwest PA by mid-morning, bringing the possibility of damaging wind and hail, though this is deemed improbable by the National Weather Service.
As the day progresses, the likelihood of afternoon storms remains dependent on morning developments, with current models showing increased chances for severe weather conditions. Should the storms arrive later, the spokeswoman explained that mid-morning arrival of convection would likely limit afternoon coverage to areas south and east of Pittsburgh, with little chance for redevelopment behind the MCS. Later arrival would certainly be more conducive for strong to severe storms (more favorable environment). However, the National Weather Service cautions that increased cloud coverage from dissipated upstream convection could limit storm development.
Stepping into the workweek, Monday is expected to return to dry weather as subsidence and drying of deep-layer moisture profiles occur under a ridge axis. Despite the overall low probability for rain, the forecast hints at a few isolated showers and thunderstorms that may bubble up Monday afternoon over the ridges. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the central CONUS ridge begins to retrograde back over the southern high plains and southwest US, inviting renewed chances of rainfall, in part due to the interaction with Hurricane Erin in the western Atlantic. The National Weather Service Pittsburgh's outlook points to the potential for a more vigorous rainfall event over these two days.
Looking ahead to the latter half of the week, sporadic rain chances are expected for Thursday and Friday, but the weather is predicted to stay mostly dry due to a dominant and persistent upper-level high near the Four Corners extending eastward, the National Weather Service reports. Another weather system, though uncertain, is projected to impact the region by the weekend, potentially ushering in another bout of precipitation. Temperatures are forecast to remain above average mid-week before settling around climatological norms as the week progresses.
For aviation, the forecast indicates that a broken line of showers and thunderstorms could bring brief periods of rain and lightning through about 15z this morning, affecting airport terminals such as BVI, FKL, and DUJ. The National Weather Service advises that additional shower and thunderstorm activity is poised to develop later in the day, potentially impacting further area terminals intermittently. The weather is set to improve again by Monday and Tuesday, with a possibility of patchy fog depending on Sunday's rainfall.
