Bay Area residents can expect a damp and slightly stormy week ahead, as the National Weather Service (NWS) in San Francisco has forecast light rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms through Thursday. The National Weather Service released a statement that the highest rainfall totals and greatest chances for thunderstorms are anticipated in the North Bay region.
Temperatures across the San Francisco Bay Area are predicted to be below normal as the "first rain of the season" descends upon us early this year. "While the cold air aloft is notable for this time of year, well below normal temperatures at the surface will likely do little to capitalize on the situation," noted a discussion provided by NWS San Francisco.
The weather disturbance in question is a cold and moist upper-level low, as indicated by weather balloon data that registered a precipitable water value of 1.24 inches. This ranks second-highest for this date, following the 1.37 inches recorded in 1998. There's a 15% chance of thunderstorms during the afternoons until Thursday, with Wednesday likely to experience the most action when the upper-level low is directly over our area.
The prospect of thunderstorms brings an advisory from the NWS San Francisco: "Lightning/flooding threats exist with all thunderstorms: when thunder roars, go indoors! and see a flash, dash inside!" Regardless of the storms, the rain showers are seen to be beneficial, particularly after the dry spell the region has experienced. Moving into the weekend, the unsettled conditions are expected to give way to a brief respite before another trough brings a hint of rainfall back to the West Coast on Sunday.
Aviation and marine activities will also be affected by the unsettled weather pattern. Scattered showers are on the radar for Bay Area and Central Coast airports. There is a "10% chance of thunderstorms across the North Bay this afternoon and 5% chance of thunderstorms across rest of Bay Area," the NWS San Francisco aviation forecast stated, signifying the potential need for TAF amendments later in the day. Meanwhile, mariners should prepare for scattered rain showers and possibilities of isolated thunderstorms through Thursday, with the northern coastal waters facing the highest chance of thunderstorms, particularly on Tuesday.
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