Residents in parts of Orlando are facing another day of potential flooding as the National Weather Service (NWS) in Melbourne, FL, extends the Flood Watch through the evening. This alert encompasses several counties, including Volusia, Lake, Seminole, Orange, Osceola, and Brevard. According to their latest Area Forecast Discussion, the day is expected to be warm and humid, with scattered to numerous showers and storms anticipated, as a cool front is forecast to move in late tonight and continue into Tuesday.
While today's temperatures are predicted to reach into the mid-80s, with the heat index hitting mid-90s in some southern sections, this will generate increased surface instability. The National Weather Service warns of possible gusty winds and small hail, especially south of Orlando late in the day. As the front slides back southward, cooler and drier air is slated to move in on Tuesday, providing relief from the recent muggy conditions. Despite the watch, forecasters are hopeful of avoiding the excessive rainfall totals of 10-20 that occurred in portions of north Lake and north Brevard.
In terms of marine conditions, a frontal boundary sitting over the local Atlantic waters is expected to push south across the area on Tuesday, with a dry reinforcing cold front to follow by Thursday. The NWS has been gradually scaling back its Small Craft Advisories, as winds shift to a SE direction today with decreasing speed. However, the waters, particularly beyond 20nm from Volusia and Brevard, are anticipated to retain 7 ft seas into the evening. With a stronger front coming through midweek, another set of advisories may be declared due to seas building back up to 7-8 ft around the Gulf Stream.
Aviators should be vigilant as a warm front could lead to some MVFR CIGs early this morning. Conditions are expected to improve after around 13Z. Midday forecasts include SCT-NUM TS/SH, particularly for coastal terminals, until 01Z, possibly extending later. With the cold front's passage late into the night, there's a possible onset of IFR-LIFR conditions. The NWS advises that daytime heating should dissipate/lift CIGS to VFR as we move past the early hours, hinting at a reprieve in the rollercoaster of weather Central Florida seems to be stuck in.
