DoorDash just dropped some compelling evidence that San Francisco's downtown isn't circling the drain after all—and the proof is in the pudding. Or more accurately, in the lunch deliveries.
The San Francisco-based food delivery giant's newly released State of Local Commerce report reveals that weekday lunch orders to commercial addresses in the city surged 15.7% from 2024 to 2025, marking the second-highest increase among the nation's 100 largest cities. Only Chandler, Arizona—a Phoenix suburb—outpaced The City with a 17.5% jump, according to SF Examiner.
"What this tells me is that San Francisco is seeing greater growth in commercial lunch orders as compared to residential, which signals that people are ordering lunch in the downtown area," DoorDash Chief Analytics Officer Jessica Lachs told the publication.
The Numbers Tell a Different Story Than the Headlines
While doom-and-gloom narratives about San Francisco's empty office towers persist, DoorDash's granular data—drawn from millions of transactions across its platform—paints a more nuanced picture. Nationally, weekday lunch orders to commercial addresses increased just 2.5% year-over-year, making San Francisco's 15.7% jump more than six times the national average, as detailed in DoorDash's official report.
The delivery data aligns with recent commercial real estate metrics showing signs of recovery. According to SF Examiner, San Francisco's office vacancy rate declined to 35.8% in the first quarter of 2025, down from 36.5% the previous quarter—marking the second consecutive quarterly decline.
AI Companies Fueling the Downtown Resurgence
The lunch delivery surge isn't happening in a vacuum. San Francisco has become ground zero for the artificial intelligence boom, with AI firms leasing massive amounts of office space throughout 2024 and 2025. These companies have collectively absorbed more than 1 million square feet over the past year, representing nearly 90% of new leasing activity during that period, according to Bisnow.
Major players like OpenAI, which leased over 300,000 square feet in Mission Bay, and Anthropic have been expanding their San Francisco footprints aggressively. AI startup Sierra recently signed a deal for 300,000 square feet at 185 Berry Street.
These AI companies tend to favor in-office work over remote arrangements. "Most of these AI companies are in the office four, five or six days of the week, and, like the mobile and app economy companies pre-pandemic, will have an impact and draw more people to the office on a regular basis," Colin Yasukochi, executive director of CBRE's Tech Insights Center, told Commercial Observer.
Broader Return-to-Office Trends
The lunch delivery data suggests that San Francisco is participating in—and in some cases, leading—a broader return-to-office movement. More than half of the 100 cities DoorDash studied showed increases in weekday lunch orders to commercial addresses, indicating a national shift back toward in-person work.
This tracks with local policy changes. Mayor Daniel Lurie has mandated that most city employees return to the office at least four days per week by late April, while private sector employers like JPMorgan Chase have implemented five-day-per-week policies for many San Francisco employees, as noted in a recent Hoodline report on the city's office market recovery.
The Data Behind the Data
DoorDash's methodology focused specifically on weekday lunch deliveries, comparing orders to commercial addresses versus residential addresses year-over-year. The company's massive user base—over 40 million across the United States—provides a substantial dataset, though Lachs acknowledged the findings don't represent all Americans.
"It's a lot of data," she said, according to SF Examiner. "So while it may not be representative of everyone, it does reflect a large portion of Americans and their spending habits and business activity across the country."
The study excluded pickup orders, focusing solely on deliveries where customer addresses could be clearly determined as either commercial or residential.
Still a Long Road Ahead
Despite these encouraging signs, San Francisco's office market remains far from its pre-pandemic health. The 35.8% vacancy rate—though improving—still represents more than one-third of all office space sitting empty. For context, the city's office vacancy rate hit a record low of 4.7% in the second quarter of 2019 before the pandemic upended work patterns, according to city data.
However, projections from CBRE suggest the AI boom could continue driving recovery. The firm estimates that AI companies could lease an additional 16 million square feet in San Francisco by 2030—potentially cutting the vacancy rate in half if current absorption trends hold, as reported by CRE Daily.
Why This Matters Now
DoorDash's report arrives at a particularly relevant moment for San Francisco. The data provides a real-time economic snapshot at a time when official government statistics face delays due to ongoing federal budget uncertainties. The company's ability to track spending patterns, business activity, and consumer behavior through millions of daily transactions offers a unique window into economic trends that traditional data sources can't match in timeliness.
The Trump administration has even cited DoorDash's findings in recent economic messaging, though SFGATE noted some discrepancies between the White House's characterizations and what the report actually states.
For San Francisco, the lunch delivery data represents more than just a feel-good statistic. It's tangible evidence that people are physically returning to downtown offices, supporting the restaurants and businesses that depend on weekday foot traffic—a critical component of the city's broader economic recovery strategy.
