The Hawaiian Islands are bracing for a shift in weather as a cold front moves down the chain, introducing increased showers and stronger winds, notably across windward slopes. The National Weather Service in Honolulu details that this front is expected to progress through Sunday, followed by breezy to windy east-northeasterly trades persisting over the coming week due to a high-pressure system building north. A rise in moisture along and ahead of the approaching boundary could lead to a couple of inches of rain in certain areas, primarily affecting Maui County and the Big Island by Saturday evening through Sunday. These forecasts can be found on the National Weather Service's website.
In aviation, the advance of the cold front is anticipated to introduce variable conditions, with general visual flight rules (VFR) ahead of the front and marginal VFR (MVFR) due to showers. As the NWS notes, light and variable winds are expected to give way to breezier conditions as the front moves through, and air traffic management provisions, such as AIRMETs, may be necessary to account for potential turbulence and mountain obscuration.
On the maritime front, the pending cold front and resultant northeasterly winds are likely to lead to increased sea activity. Mariners should prepare for a Small Craft Advisory that's projected to kick in tonight and last into the following week. "Fresh to locally strong north-northeast winds will develop in the wake of this front along with building seas," according to the NWS forecast. Furthermore, a gale force low far north of the state is expected to generate swells that could heighten surf to advisory thresholds along north facing shores. East facing shores can also expect elevated surf and choppy conditions due to the combined effect of increased winds and northerly swell.
Land-based concerns are less dramatic, with the NWS predicting no critical fire weather conditions during this period, despite breezy to windy trades backing the front. Increased relative humidity and the fast-moving nature of the front are expected to diminish the possibility of fire hazards. For coastal areas, a slight risk of minor flooding is present due primarily to peak monthly tides and water levels higher than anticipated, a fact highlighted by the issuance of a Coastal Flood Statement effective through noon today.
