The skies over Columbus, Cincinnati, Wilmington, and their environs are set to open up this afternoon as a weak low pressure system moves in, bringing rain but fortunately not much in the way of concerns for heavy rainfall amounts or rates. According to the National Weather Service in Wilmington, this bout of precipitation is expected to clear by late tonight, leading into a weekend that may offer glimpses of that all-too-elusive November sun. As for today, those with high hopes for temperatures might find them a touch optimistic.
Earlier this morning, the fog that has been blanketing areas north of the Ohio River has shown signs of improvement, and this pattern will continue. The western warm front edging into northern Kentucky is ushering in a light initial rainfall, which has already touched down in southern Indiana and central Kentucky. The main rain shield will traverse the area later in the afternoon, perhaps sparing central Ohio until the day’s wane. Rain should taper off as the evening unfolds, with a retreating weak low pressure and a lagging short wave bringing an end to the precipitation.
Looking ahead, Saturday might offer an uptick on the optimism scale, with high pressure slated to build in through Monday, suggesting clearer skies might finally have their moment. The forecast for the short term period, extending from this evening through Saturday evening, hinges on cautious hope for cloud clearance by Saturday afternoon, setting the stage for what could be a sunnier conclusion to the weekend.
In the long term, high pressure will assert itself across the region, steely and determined. The NWS Wilmington details a somewhat homogenous rainfall event tied to a Monday short wave, which is set to spread across the area later, hanging mostly over northern Kentucky and southern Ohio. The subsequent system, trotting in from the northern Plains, is painting a less certain picture, with models depicting considerable divergence in outcomes. As for the forecasts, they reflect variability as vast as the skies above; some models prognosticate an early week system exiting by Tuesday morning, while precipitation stays relatively tame and unimpressive—just a milder addition to the dreary days.
For aviation interests, the Cincinnati area might see IFR conditions as the inbound rain mutes visibility. LIFR ceilings could drop even further, making for a challenging time in the skies. "Rain will diminish between 03z and 06z, but IFR/LIFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibilities will persist through the end of the period," the National Weather Service warns. This sets a somewhat grim tone for the weekend flyers, though by Saturday, conditions are expected to brighten somewhat, at least on the ground.
