The forecast is in, and it's one of those rare instances where Ohio residents can experience a taste of early fall during mid-November. According to the National Weather Service in Wilmington, Ohio, a period of above normal temperatures will grace the Columbus, Cincinnati, Wilmington, and surrounding areas today and Saturday, courtesy of a southwesterly flow. The brief respite from the usual chill comes ahead of a cold front expected to make its presence felt Saturday night.
On the ground, that translates into possible highs ranging from the upper 50s in the northwest to the low or mid-60s in the southwest. But don't hang up your umbrellas just yet; as the National Weather Service notes, "Isolated to scattered showers will shift east across southern portions of our area this morning." They won't amount to much, but the tease of rainfall is there in the weak isentropic lift moving in. Come Saturday, the likelihood of rain ramps up, driven by a strengthening low-level jet stream and increased moisture advection, meaning that umbrellas will become a necessity rather than a precaution.
Winds are set to pick up as well, with gusts predicted to hit 25 to 35 mph come Saturday afternoon – so secure your lawn furniture and hold on to your hats. "During the daytime period, instability looks to remain marginal at best, so the better chance for any embedded thunderstorms should hold off through Saturday afternoon," the National Weather Service explained. Breezy conditions aside, Saturday is expected to have temperatures that, reason would argue, belong more to September than November with a solid range in the 65 to 70-degree bracket.
But as the moods of Midwestern weather go, this too shall pass, giving way to a "cooler, more seasonable airmass" by Sunday, based on the National Weather Service's forecast discussion. Aviation may become trickier, with MVFR (Marginal Visual Flight Rules) conditions potentially coming into play Saturday into Saturday night, and that's not all for the weary. "A 50+ knot LLJ will provide plenty of shear, so we cannot rule out an isolated strong storm in the areas mentioned, though overall instability profile is limited and messy," the forecast discussion states. Even without the drama of a strong storm, the evening showers come Saturday might still whip out winds strong enough to make their presence known.
The theater of Ohio weather continues into next week, with sunnier days ahead for Sunday and Monday, but by Monday night, the stage is set for the next act—a more active pattern that brings rain and possibly brief snow flurries by Tuesday. It looks like Ohioans should prepare to ride the rollercoaster of weather transition that's part and parcel of living in this state, with a mix of temperate and tumult to come.
