Short-term savings are masking a deeper hole in SamTrans’ operating budget, the agency told its board in early November. Chief Financial Officer Kate Jordan Steiner said the district closed Fiscal Year 2025 with a deficit that one-time funds covered, but those reserves won’t stretch past 2027. That puts potential fare hikes, service adjustments, or deeper reserve draws squarely on the table if revenue doesn’t rebound. Riders and county leaders will be watching closely to see what comes next.
At the Nov. 5 board meeting, Steiner told directors that the [sales tax] revenues for Fiscal Year ’25 did finish below budget and that expenses ran about 10% under projections. As reported by the San Mateo Daily Journal, she stated that the short-term outlook has improved, largely driven by one-time savings and favorable timing, and that prior-year carryforwards have been exhausted. In other words, the Band-Aids are already spoken for.
SamTrans adopted a two-year operating plan in June that sets a balanced FY2026 budget at $323.7 million and projects FY2027 at roughly $339.2 million; the agency says it can cover a modest gap with prior-year surplus for now, but that “such one-time sources will be exhausted” after FY2027. That assessment comes from SamTrans, which says it will pursue cost containment, reserve strategies, and a review of fares and service.
Options the board is weighing
Staff told the board a toolkit of responses is under review, including tighter discretionary spending, targeted hiring pauses, reserve use, and assessments of service and fares. Local reporting notes that a fare increase remains one option, and that SamTrans has not raised fares in nearly a decade. However, officials say any change would be paired with fare assistance for riders in need, according to The Almanac. The stated goal is to preserve core services while buying time to secure long-term funding.
Ballot measure could provide relief
The board voted in August to opt into a proposed regional funding plan tied to Senate Bill 63, a 14-year sales tax proposal that SamTrans says could deliver more than $45 million annually to the county, according to SamTrans. Officials framed the measure as a way to shore up Caltrain and local bus operations while adding oversight protections for participating counties. Voter approval would be required to move the plan forward, and SamTrans states that it will continue to advocate for accountability in any final package.
What riders should watch
For now, SamTrans officials say the agency can manage through FY2027 using one-time savings and tighter spending, but beyond that, it will need new revenue or cuts. Sales-tax revenue for the current fiscal year is expected to remain flat, a factor the agency is monitoring closely, according to the San Mateo Daily Journal. The board has directed staff to continue tracking receipts and bring back specific options for public review and comment.
