Republicans sitting on top of an early California governor’s poll is not a headline Democrats are used to seeing, but that is exactly what a new Civic Lens Research snapshot shows. Former Fox host Steve Hilton is just under 18% and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco is about 14%, while Rep. Eric Swalwell leads the Democrats at roughly 12% and about one-third of likely primary voters are still undecided. It is an early reminder that in California’s system, name recognition and turnout can matter as much as party registration.
According to The Sacramento Bee, the Civic Lens survey polled 400 likely primary voters Dec. 14 to 16 using a web questionnaire sent by text. The poll found Hilton at nearly 18%, Bianco at 14%, Swalwell at 12%, Katie Porter at 9%, Tom Steyer at 7% and about one-third of respondents undecided. The Bee describes Civic Lens as a fledgling nonpartisan polling firm based in Virginia. Republican strategist Jon Fleischman told the paper it is "very, very unlikely" that two GOP candidates actually make it through the primary.
Democratic strategist Andrew Acosta noted that the filing period remains open until March and said candidates will begin planting flags on policy in the new year, according to The Sacramento Bee. That calendar matters because a crowded Democratic field could fracture the party’s vote in the June top-two contest and give early lifts to better-known Republicans. Pollsters cautioned that the Civic Lens sample is small and that early name-recognition gaps can change quickly once candidates start advertising and endorsements start landing.
Polls Are Mixed, Undecideds Loom Large
An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey conducted Dec. 1 to 2 put Chad Bianco at 13%, Steve Hilton and Eric Swalwell at 12% each and Katie Porter at 11%, with 31% undecided, according to Emerson College Polling. A separate mid-November PPIC statewide survey, by contrast, found Porter leading at 21%, with Hilton and Xavier Becerra tied at 14%, according to PPIC.
Top-Two Stakes
California uses a "top-two" primary system in which the two highest vote-getters, regardless of party, advance to the November ballot. That means if two Republicans finish first and second, Democrats are shut out of the general election, as explained by the Los Angeles Times. The setup has produced same-party general elections in past cycles and shapes how strategists think about candidate consolidation and turnout.
What Campaigns Will Do Next
"No clear leader for the 2026 gubernatorial primary has yet emerged," Emerson’s Spencer Kimball said, and with so many undecided voters, campaigns are expected to zero in on name recognition, targeted ad buys and turnout math, according to Emerson College Polling. That combination makes the next several months, from filing deadlines to primary debates and ad buys, the most consequential stretch before ballots are cast.
The Civic Lens snapshot stands out for briefly putting two Republicans atop a race Democrats typically dominate, but the small sample size and large undecided pool mean the standings could shift in a hurry. The next wave of polls, ad spending and endorsements is likely to tell a much clearer story.
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