The long-running breakup bid between La Jolla and the city of San Diego just got a serious boost. Yesterday, the Association for the City of La Jolla said San Diego had opted not to appeal a judge's dismissal of its lawsuit, clearing a major legal hurdle for the secession effort. That decision removes the immediate court obstacle and allows the Local Agency Formation Commission to resume the review that will decide whether La Jolla could operate as its own city. Proponents still face a funding gap, though, and must complete a consultant-driven fiscal analysis before any ballot measure can be scheduled.
Judge's Ruling and What Changed
Superior Court Judge Judy Bae granted the ACLJ’s anti-SLAPP motion in October, striking down the city of San Diego's attempt to block LAFCO’s certification of petition signatures, as reported when La Jolla moved closer to secession. That ruling left LAFCO free to continue an administrative review of the group's application, and it is that court decision that opponents of the petition had been contesting, per Hoodline.
City Drops Appeal and Group Details
The city of San Diego has now told ACLJ it will not appeal Bae's dismissal, a move the group says clears the way for LAFCO's next steps. The association told The San Diego Union-Tribune that it still needs roughly $200,000 to complete a final fiscal analysis and that producing the report will take six to nine months, ACLJ President Diane Kane said. The group is aiming to have a cityhood question ready for the 2028 ballot if the fiscal review comes back favorable.
LAFCO's Timeline and the Fiscal Study
San Diego LAFCO issued a request for proposals last Wednesday, inviting consultants to prepare a Comprehensive Fiscal Analysis, according to San Diego LAFCO. The RFP sets a March 10 deadline for proposals and anticipates consultant selection and contract initiation by April, with a draft CFA currently targeted for release in April 2027. The consultant chosen will test the proponents' assumptions about revenues, services and any mitigation payments to the city.
What the Preliminary Numbers Show
A preliminary fiscal analysis compiled for the ACLJ by economist Richard Berkson estimated a roughly $74.8 million first-year city budget and a positive first-year net position of more than $8 million, while projecting a roughly $8.5 million annual impact on San Diego under the proposed boundaries, according to LaJolla.ca. Those preliminary figures reflect the ACLJ's boundary map, which notably excludes UC San Diego, and will be scrutinized during LAFCO's CFA. If LAFCO's analysis diverges substantially, proponents and the city could be in for a period of negotiation or additional study.
Funding and Community Campaign
The Association for the City of La Jolla is actively fundraising and recruiting volunteers as it prepares for the LAFCO process, and its website lays out ways to contribute and get involved, including donations and volunteer sign-ups. The group has already raised some initial funds toward LAFCO application fees and consulting costs, and organizers say more outreach to San Diegans outside La Jolla will be part of the next phase. Events and public education efforts are likely once a draft fiscal report is released.
Legal Implications
The city's decision not to appeal closes that particular legal front for now but does not guarantee a new city will follow. Under state law and LAFCO procedures, incorporation proposals must clear fiscal and social-equity tests at the commission level and then win voter approval both inside the proposed city and across the existing municipality, a high bar noted by local coverage and experts, according to the UCSD Guardian. That procedural pathway, along with the fact that no La Jolla secession has succeeded since LAFCOs were created in 1963, helps explain why proponents still face a steep climb ahead.
For now, the decisive next steps are fundraising and the selection of a fiscal consultant; if LAFCO's draft analysis is favorable, the campaign could begin a public push toward a citywide vote. Expect public hearings and a detailed LAFCO report over the next year as the commission moves the proposal forward, according to San Diego LAFCO.
