Colorado researchers are quietly building one of the most ambitious health care spreadsheets the state has ever seen: a statewide computer model to test whether a single-payer, nonprofit payment system could truly cover every resident. The number-crunching kicks off as Coloradans carry roughly $1 billion in unpaid medical debt, and the goal is to hand lawmakers hard numbers on costs, coverage, and who comes out ahead or behind under different designs.
Who’s Doing the Math
The Colorado School of Public Health is leading the Health Payment System Analysis, a legislatively authorized study tasked with dissecting draft single-payer legislation, according to the Colorado School of Public Health. Grassroots donors and advocacy groups pulled together about $750,000 to get the project moving, as reported by The Denver Gazette.
What the Model Will Show
The team plans to build a sweeping database capturing every Colorado resident’s current insurance status, health care use, and costs. With that, researchers say they can simulate how switching to a single-payer setup or other reforms would ripple through spending and access across counties and provider types. “We’ll have a very good estimate of what would be the cost, health, and financial implications,” Dr. Greg Tung told The Denver Gazette.
Legal Stakes: Medical Debt and Credit Reports
The modeling effort is unfolding alongside a courtroom fight over how painful medical bills should follow people around. The debt-collection trade group ACA International sued Colorado in November, arguing that the state’s 2023 law, HB 23-1126, which bars most medical debt from appearing on credit reports, clashes with federal credit-reporting rules, according to ACA International and the bill text on the Colorado General Assembly.
Where Relief Is Coming From, and What It Won’t Fix
The KFF-Peterson analysis estimates that Americans are sitting on at least $220 billion in medical debt nationally, a reminder that Colorado’s number-crunching has implications far beyond the state line. Undue Medical Debt reports that donor-funded debt-buying campaigns have wiped out billions of dollars in bills across the country, and recent reporting indicates about $168 million in Colorado medical balances have been retired for roughly 140,000 residents, according to Colorado Politics.
What’s Next
Under the legislative directive, the study must wrap up by the end of 2026. Before the spreadsheets get too unwieldy, the research team will hold its first public meeting on Monday to gather input from communities and providers about what they want the analysis to answer. Details and registration are posted on the project page at the Colorado School of Public Health.
