New polling has U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds sitting on a hefty early advantage in the contest to replace term-limited Gov. Ron DeSantis, and that edge grows dramatically once Republican voters are reminded he has former President Donald Trump in his corner.
Tracker Snapshot
A statewide polling tracker updated Feb. 11 shows Donalds out in front in several hypothetical GOP primary fields. According to The New York Times, the tool compiles Florida governor surveys that meet set standards and makes the underlying datasets available under a Creative Commons license.
What A Fabrizio, Lee Poll Showed
One of the clearest snapshots comes from a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates survey of about 600 likely Republican primary voters, conducted Jan. 4–6. In a four-way test ballot that included Lt. Gov. Jay Collins, Donalds was clocked at 45 percent support compared with 6 percent for Collins.
The same poll then tested what happens when respondents are told Trump has endorsed Donalds. In those versions, Donalds’ support jumped into the high 60s or higher in some permutations, a movement pollsters described as decisive. Those findings were summarized by outlets including Capitolist.
Collins Enters but Struggles To Break Through
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins formally launched his campaign in January, positioning himself as a DeSantis-aligned choice for Republicans, according to AP. So far, though, the early polling suggests that even a multimillion-dollar advertising push has not yet translated into lasting gains in name recognition or ballot support.
Trump's Endorsement Still Moves Voters
Trump publicly signaled his backing for Donalds last year. Multiple surveys indicate that when voters are explicitly told about that endorsement, Donalds’ share of the vote rises significantly in hypothetical primary matchups, according to reporting by Politico. That pattern tracks with Donalds’ early fundraising muscle and broad Republican support as the primary season comes into view.
Democrats And The Calendar
On the Democratic side, there have been fewer public polls so far, though former Republican congressman David Jolly and Orlando Mayor Jerry Demings are showing up as two of the better-known names in early testing, according to local reporting.
Florida’s statewide election calendar currently lists the primary for Aug. 18, 2026, and the general election for Nov. 3, 2026, per ClickOrlando.
Why It Matters
Donalds’ early polling lead, paired with a reported $22 million fundraising haul, gives him a clear structural advantage in the opening phase of the race. The August primary leaves room for late shifts, especially if a rival scores a major endorsement or finds a way to break through on name recognition.
For now, though, public surveys suggest Trump’s backing and Donalds’ sizable war chest are the main reasons he is sitting atop the early Republican field, according to Axios.
