Millbrae is leaning hard on its train-station district to carry the city over a major housing hurdle. Officials say the city is on track to meet the state-mandated 2023–2031 housing goal of 2,199 homes, largely thanks to a wave of big projects clustered around the transit hub. A small group of developments could deliver a hefty slice of that total, but only if entitled projects quickly turn into building permits and if infrastructure challenges near the station do not slow construction to a crawl. Over the next several years, the raw pace of permitting will decide whether Millbrae crosses the finish line on time.
As reported by the San Mateo Daily Journal, the city has issued roughly 18% of the 2,199 building permits it must hit by 2031, or about 408 permitted units. Folding in projects that are entitled but not yet permitted would push that share close to half. City staff have cautioned that state rules generally do not let jurisdictions count entitled units until building permits are actually issued, and Community Development Director Brad Misner has flagged timing issues that some large projects must work through before they can even apply. Misner told the paper the city will need roughly 200 new building-permit approvals each year to stay on pace, and Councilmember Bob Nguyen said the current numbers suggest Millbrae is headed in the right direction.
According to Millbrae's 2023–2031 Housing Element, the state-certified plan assigns the city 2,199 homes for the eight-year cycle and divides that total into income bands, including 575 very-low-income units and 331 low-income units. The housing element spells out programs intended to speed approvals, encourage transit-oriented housing and keep Millbrae eligible for state grant funding that is tied to housing production. Certified by the California Department of Housing and Community Development, the plan gives the city a formal framework to track progress and file required annual reports.
Big projects that move the needle
One of the biggest swing projects is the Serra Station transit-oriented development, described in a state environmental review as a mixed-use plan that would include 488 multifamily units. That footprint overlaps parts of the state’s high-speed rail station planning and has already been a source of delay. The California High-Speed Rail Authority notes the Serra Station proposal and the potential conflict with station facilities and parking areas, and city staff say they are working through those issues before the project can move into plan review for building permits. Another major piece is the El Rancho Inn redevelopment on El Camino Real, a planned mixed-use project slated to add about 384 units, with the city’s project page indicating permitting approvals are expected this year.
Smaller permits add up
The San Mateo Daily Journal also points out that smaller developments are already doing quiet but important work in the background. A 2025 project at 1301 Broadway includes roughly 97 residential units, and a 2024 complex listed as One Meadow Glen added about 278 units. Those approvals, plus other infill efforts, helped Millbrae reach roughly 408 permitted units so far. City staff say steady developer interest, especially around the station area, paired with new local programs, underpins their claim that Millbrae is currently “on track.”
What could slow production
Despite the momentum, a few grounded realities could put the brakes on progress: conflicts between private development and regional transit projects, the time it takes to complete detailed plan reviews and the ever-present need to turn paper entitlements into actual building-permit applications. The California High-Speed Rail Authority illustrates how station design and parking changes complicate the Serra Station site, and Millbrae's housing element outlines local measures meant to shorten reviews and incentivize density. In practical terms, entitlement is only the opening move; the city will need steady staffing, financing and regional coordination to see those units built.
For now Millbrae’s trajectory looks promising, but the next 24 months will be crucial. Watch for formal permit filings on the Serra Station site and the El Rancho Inn redevelopment, and for the city’s next progress reports showing whether today’s entitlements are becoming tomorrow’s permits. If filings and construction starts keep pace, local leaders say Millbrae could hit the 2,199-unit target, but the timeline is tight and will hinge on continued cooperation among developers, the city and regional transit agencies.
