Homebuyers quietly started tiptoeing back into the market in February. Signed contracts for existing homes, known as pending home sales, rose 1.8% from January, even though contract signings were still about 0.8% below the pace from a year earlier.
The National Association of REALTORS®' Pending Home Sales Index captured that modest bump, according to reporting by Tampa Free Press. The outlet notes that the headline gain hides a patchwork market where some regions and metros are starting to pull ahead while others are still stuck in low gear.
Why Economists Say Affordability Matters
NAR Chief Economist Dr. Lawrence Yun ties the pickup to an incremental improvement in affordability, acknowledging, “Housing affordability is improving, and consumers are responding.” He also points out that there are still roughly 6 million more jobs than before the pandemic, a backdrop that keeps many potential buyers in the hunt even as they eye mortgage rates warily. At the same time, Yun and NAR economists warn that the recent gains could prove fragile if mortgage rates reverse course.
Regional Split: Midwest Leads Gains
The month-to-month breakdown shows just how uneven the rebound is. The Midwest led with a 4.6% increase in pending sales, the South climbed 2.7% and the West edged up 0.9%, while the Northeast slipped 3.6%, according to Tampa Free Press. On a yearly basis, the South and West remain in positive territory, while the Northeast and Midwest are still trailing their 2025 levels.
Where Buyers Are Busiest
Zooming in on specific metros, a few clear standouts emerge. Data from Realtor.com Economics shows San Diego–Chula Vista–Carlsbad up about 13.5% year over year in contract activity, Jacksonville up 12.1%, San Jose up 10.6% and Denver up 10.5%, while Miami, Phoenix and Sacramento each posted gains close to 10%.
The backdrop for these busier markets: mortgage rates eased through February, and NAR's February report notes an average of roughly 6.05% for the 30‑year fixed. At the same time, inventory has inched higher in many areas, giving cautious buyers a bit more room to breathe and more listings to consider. Still, economists stress that the recovery is not broad-based, and a jump in interest rates or rising energy costs could quickly put the brakes on the current momentum.
For Tampa‑area buyers and sellers, the national numbers hint at a market that is loosening but still highly local in how it behaves on the ground, according to Realtor.com. Competition and price pressure remain intense in many top coastal metros even as inventory improves elsewhere. That leaves buyers weighing better affordability against local inventory and timing, while sellers who price realistically could still see strong interest as the spring season unfolds.
