One surprise bill. One broken transmission or urgent clinic visit. For nearly half of U.S. consumers, that is all it would take to knock their finances off balance, according to a new national survey, leaving many households one bad week away from trouble.
What the survey found
According to PYMNTS Intelligence, a Paycheck-to-Paycheck report based on a survey of 2,465 U.S. adults, only 48.5% of consumers said they were very or extremely confident they could cover a $1,000 unexpected expense without falling behind on other bills.
The same report found that 40% of consumers were living paycheck-to-paycheck out of financial necessity in December 2025, up from 29% at the start of the year. Among people who were hit with a financial shock in the past year, about two-thirds said their biggest surprise cost more than $1,000.
Inflation and the backdrop
Prices did not make things easier in 2025. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows headline inflation dipped to about 2.4% in May, while additional figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate it finished the year at roughly 2.7% in December 2025.
That might sound relatively tame, but the year’s back-and-forth in shelter and energy costs squeezed household budgets and left less room for rainy-day savings.
Consumer confidence
As the bills kept coming, the mood soured. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported in its Survey of Consumer Expectations that a sizable share of respondents said their finances were worse than a year earlier.
That slide in confidence lines up with the growing number of people saying they are running out of cushion between paychecks and feel less able to handle even routine surprises.
How people cope
When emergencies do hit, many households are leaning on plastic instead of savings. The New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit shows that credit card and other non-housing balances rose through 2025 even as “aggregate delinquency worsened,” with roughly 4.8% of outstanding debt in some stage of delinquency.
PYMNTS Intelligence also found paycheck-to-paycheck consumers are far more likely to rely on revolving credit, payday or alternative financing, or help from friends and family when a surprise expense pops up.
What to watch
There are three big warning lights to watch in the months ahead: whether credit card balances and limits keep climbing, whether delinquency flows accelerate in the New York Fed’s quarterly snapshots, and whether short-term savings rates finally start to edge higher.
For households already feeling squeezed, even modest, regular contributions to a liquid emergency fund and shopping around for lower-cost borrowing options can help lower the odds that a single unexpected bill turns into a long, grinding financial setback.
