Clear skies are kicking off Monday morning in Tampa, with temperatures in the low 70s and that familiar sticky humidity already in place. The heat will build into the mid‑80s through the day before late‑afternoon showers and thunderstorms become more likely after about 2 p.m. As clouds roll in and winds start to shift later in the day, temperatures should slide back into the low 80s.
Afternoon Into Midweek
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire up this afternoon with roughly a 50% chance of rain. Any stronger cells could quickly drop about a half to three‑quarters of an inch of rain in a short burst. By tonight (Monday night, April 6, 2026), the chance of showers and thunderstorms climbs to around 70%, with an overnight low near 64°F.
The front responsible for the change in the weather is forecast to stall over south Florida on Tuesday, April 7. That will keep Tuesday and Wednesday on the unsettled side and knock daytime highs back into the low to mid‑70s. Northeast winds are expected to increase to around 10 to 15 mph, with gusts at times into the mid to upper 20s, and a tightening pressure gradient will push seas higher. For the latest timing, advisories, and any watches, see the National Weather Service.
Drought And Longer‑Term Outlook
Even if a few neighborhoods get briefly soaked, much of the area is still stuck in moderate to extreme drought. A handful of storms this week will not make up for the longer‑term rainfall deficits. Residents are urged to keep following any local watering restrictions and conservation guidance, according to Drought.gov.
What This Means For Your Day
If you have outdoor plans this afternoon, it is a good idea to bring an umbrella and build in some extra time for the evening commute. Brief heavy downpours can quickly drop visibility and lead to ponding in low‑lying spots on the road.
Planning to be out on the bay Tuesday through Thursday? You might want a backup plan. The combination of stronger northeast winds and building seas could make conditions rough enough to be unsafe for small boats. For more background on the pattern setting this up, check out our earlier steamy skies preview.
