Covid Convict Comeback: Nearly Half Of Early N.C. Prison Releases Back In Cuffs

Nearly half of the people released from North Carolina prisons in fiscal year 2021 were arrested again within two years, according to state data. A smaller group that left prison early under a 2021 COVID settlement posted even higher rearrest rates, and those numbers are now fueling campaign ads, legislative hearings and a fresh round of finger-pointing in Raleigh.

A 265-page study by the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission found that about 44 percent of nearly 13,000 people released from state prisons in FY2021 were rearrested within two years. Roughly 33 percent were reimprisoned during that same window. The commission tracked arrests, convictions and returns to custody over a fixed two-year follow-up period.

The report also singled out people whose releases were tied to a February 25, 2021 COVID settlement and found that group fared worse. Recidivist arrest rates were highest for prisoners released 61 or more days early, the commission noted, with an overall rearrest rate in the high 40s for those settlement releases. A separate section of the North Carolina Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission report breaks the numbers down by offense class and by how many days someone left custody ahead of schedule.

The early releases grew out of litigation filed in April 2020 by civil rights groups including the ACLU and the NAACP. That case produced a February 25, 2021 settlement that required the state to free at least 3,500 people over several months. The agreement also allowed the plaintiffs to receive a sealed list of releases to share with reentry providers and lawyers, according to contemporaneous and later coverage. The Associated Press reported on the deal when it was signed, and The News & Observer later detailed how officials tried to negotiate criteria that prioritized people considered lower risk.

Why the Numbers Matter

Recidivism data like this is not just fodder for campaign mailers. Lawmakers and corrections officials say it shapes decisions on supervision rules, housing programs and reentry funding. Returning people to prison is expensive, and many of those returns are widely viewed as preventable with the right mix of support services.

NC Health News has reported that North Carolina has launched a statewide reentry push, capped by Executive Order No. 303 in January 2024. At the same time, corrections leaders have been warning that chronic staffing shortages and tight budgets make it hard to expand programs at the scale many advocates want.

Politics and the Push for Answers

The settlement list and the new recidivism figures have quickly become talking points in this year’s U.S. Senate race and at the legislature. Republicans have called for investigations, and a General Assembly subcommittee was created in April to review how early release decisions were made. The News & Observer has followed the panel’s work and the dueling claims from both campaigns.

Adding fuel to the fire, a newly published searchable database, CooperReleasedHim.com, claims to have matched thousands of records tied to the settlement. The site says roughly 2,400 of about 4,200 entries later reoffended, a figure that has been cited by the database’s creator and some Republican operatives in press statements. The North State Journal reported on the tool and on comments from both its operator and Michael Whatley’s campaign. The Cooper campaign and state corrections officials have pushed back on the way those numbers are being framed.

Fact-checkers have also stepped in. PolitiFact and local outlets have noted that some of the most high-profile examples being tied to the sealed list, including the case of DeCarlos Brown Jr., were not triggered by the settlement itself and actually predated the February 25, 2021 agreement. That timing detail has become a central point in ongoing fact-checks and campaign sparring. PolitiFact reviewed state records that show Brown’s release timeline and the Department of Public Safety’s explanation for why some names appeared on the settlement list.

What Comes Next

The General Assembly subcommittee is expected to keep holding hearings, and both major campaigns are likely to keep sharpening their narratives as November approaches. Reporters and researchers will be sorting through the sealed list obtained by Republicans and the new public database to see how many alleged reoffenses were arrests versus convictions and how many involved violent crimes. Those distinctions matter both for public safety debates and for how voters interpret the headlines. The News & Observer continues to track the committee’s document requests and the administration’s responses.

For now, the Sentencing and Policy Advisory Commission findings reinforce an old policy fight in a new political season. High recidivism rates often prompt calls for stricter supervision and tougher enforcement. Reentry advocates counter that investing in housing, treatment and employment support is a more cost-effective way to keep people from cycling back into prison. With new executive action already on the books and budget battles looming, how North Carolina chooses to balance those approaches will help determine whether the next recidivism report looks any different.