Raleigh is slogging through a mostly cloudy, muggy start this morning, with temperatures stuck in the low 70s and the kind of humidity that feels like a wet blanket. Afternoon highs should land near 88°F, with only a slight chance of showers or thunderstorms popping up after midafternoon. Southwest winds will run light to moderate, and any stronger storms that do fire could kick up brief gusts.
Afternoon Storm Risk
Showers and scattered storms are most likely after 3 p.m., mainly across the Coastal Plain and into northern and western areas, including the Triad and Triangle, although many neighborhoods will stay dry, according to NWS Raleigh. The official chance of precipitation this afternoon is about 20%, and most storms should bring only brief, light rainfall. A few clusters could deliver stronger gusts, around 18 mph, or short bursts of heavier rain this evening. New rainfall amounts are expected to stay generally under one tenth of an inch.
How This Compares To Last Week
Today is a milder and cloudier setup compared with the mid 90s outlook earlier in the week. For that hotter forecast, see our Raleigh roasts at 95 May 20 update. With more clouds and slightly reduced mixing, temperatures will feel humid but not extreme, and the area-wide storm coverage should be lower than during the earlier heat surge. If you have outdoor plans, your best bets are the morning hours and the early evening.
Morning Commute
Low clouds and patchy fog this morning should lift by mid to late morning, which will improve visibility and conditions outside across much of the Triangle. A brief, spotty shower is possible for the evening commute, so it is not a bad idea to keep a light rain layer handy and check radar if you have plans after 5 p.m. Local roads are not expected to flood given today’s small rain totals, but stay alert for slick spots and reduced visibility in any heavier cells.
Weekend Outlook
A wavy frontal zone will increase shower and thunderstorm chances from Thursday into Saturday, and the weather looks more unsettled late this week, according to NWS Raleigh. Forecast confidence drops heading into Sunday and early next week, although ensemble guidance leans toward a cooler stretch with limited rain chances after the weekend. If you are planning Memorial Day weekend events, keep an eye on the Thursday and Friday forecasts.
