Zillow’s latest housing forecast is flashing a warning light for Austin, slotting the metro among the country’s biggest expected price decliners as roughly a third of U.S. markets are projected to slip over the coming year. The caution comes at a time when for-sale inventory is piling up, and buyers are thin on the ground across large swaths of the Sun Belt and Gulf Coast.
Zillow’s Outlook: Flat National Prices, Big Local Differences
On paper, Zillow’s updated model sounds calm enough. It calls for national home values to be basically flat through March 2027. Under the hood, though, some local markets look a lot shakier than others.
Among the metros facing the steepest forecast price drops are Houma, Louisiana, at an expected decline of 7.0%, Lake Charles, Louisiana, at 5.6%, Austin at 4.6%, and New Orleans at 4.4%, according to analysis highlighted by ResiClub.
Austin Among the Biggest Losers
For Austin, the numbers translate into a meaningful trim. The typical home value in the metro sits at about $508,530. A 4.6% decline would shave roughly $23,400 off that price tag.
The Austin projection appears in Zillow’s metro-level breakdown that has been reproduced by industry roundups, and the corresponding local Zillow Home Value Index estimate is listed on Zillow’s Austin market page. ACPT Wire has published the same figures for the area.
What’s Driving the Split
The divide between the markets that are softening and those that are holding up is being driven largely by old-fashioned supply and demand. Redfin reports there were an estimated 46.3% more sellers than buyers in February 2026, or roughly 630,000 more sellers nationwide, a gap that gives shoppers more leverage in many metros.
Mortgage rates that remain elevated, combined with an uptick in new listings, have also helped shape Zillow’s more muted April outlook for prices, according to market coverage that tracks those trends.
Louisiana’s Insurance Problem Makes Declines Worse
Many of Zillow’s weakest metros are clustered along the Gulf Coast, where residents are dealing with a one-two punch of storm exposure and surging insurance premiums. Research covered by The New York Times describes recent reinsurance repricing as a “reinsurance shock” that has already stripped tens of thousands of dollars from home values in high-risk ZIP codes.
On the ground in Louisiana, higher insurance bills have coincided with weaker closing activity in some areas, as local reporting has noted. Fox8 has documented a slowdown in transactions that lines up with those escalating costs.
What Buyers and Sellers Should Watch
Analysts are quick to emphasize that Zillow’s map is a forecast, not fate. A modest move in mortgage rates, a burst of local hiring or some relief in the insurance market could be enough to nudge a metro off the “losers” list.
“Slightly friendlier conditions for buyers point to the chance of a quick rebound if rates fall back to the 6% range seen earlier this year,” Zillow’s chief economist wrote in commentary that has been cited in market coverage. TheStreet has also reviewed the Zillow outlook and underlying data.
For sellers in the metros Zillow has flagged, the practical message is straightforward: prepare for longer days on market and sharper pricing. Buyers, meanwhile, may find they have real negotiating room in places where inventory has stacked up, and the forecast is pointing down.
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