A leading housing economist lit up local housing chatter on June 23 after a social post, boosted by Mayor Kirk Watson, declared that Austin appears to be the only large U.S. metro that is currently "fairly priced" on an under/overpriced index. The claim, shared on X, lands after years when Austin's breakneck growth routinely put it among the country's hottest and least affordable markets. If the index is on target, buyers and city officials may be looking at a rare window of relative value.
RT @RickPalaciosJr: #Austin is now the only big housing market ‘fairly priced’ according to our under/overpriced index. Housing markets rarely hit this threshold and the last comparable period was the post‑GFC years 2009‑2012.
— Kirk Watson (@KirkPWatson) June 23, 2026
Palacios's Index And The Claim
Rick Palacios Jr., the managing principal and director of research at John Burns Research & Consulting, circulated the finding on X in a post that Mayor Watson amplified on the evening of June 23. Palacios wrote that "housing markets rarely hit this threshold" and said the last comparable stretch came during the post-GFC years 2009 to 2012, language that reflects how his under/overpriced index currently scores Austin. His position at the firm means his read on the market is closely watched by builders and investors who track his research.
Where Local Numbers Stand
Zillow estimates Austin's average home value at about $510,722, with a roughly 5.4 percent decline over the past year as of May 31, 2026, and a median of around 35 days until homes go pending. Those national figures line up with local MLS data. The Austin American-Statesman, citing Unlock MLS, reported that the metro's median sale price slipped into the low to mid $400,000s in March while pending sales jumped. Together, those indicators point to more inventory on the market and longer selling windows than during the pandemic peak, when homes were vanishing almost as soon as listings went live.
Why It Matters To Buyers And Sellers
National listings data suggest the balance of power has tilted toward buyers. A Redfin analysis cited by Newsweek found that the typical Austin home sat a record 106 days on the market in December, the slowest pace among the 50 largest metros. That kind of slowdown helps explain why more properties are now selling below list price or cycling through multiple price cuts. Industry coverage in GlobeSt has quoted Palacios and homebuilders warning that unsold inventory is piling up and forcing price adjustments.
What City Leaders And Locals Are Saying
For City Hall, the "fairly priced" label dovetails with a broader push to speed up housing construction and ease long-standing affordability strain. Mayor Watson's decision to boost Palacios's post highlights how closely officials are tying their policy narrative to signals that Austin is cooling from its overheated peak.
Housing advocates, though, note that a single index reading does not erase years of underbuilding or wage pressures. They point out that many local workers are still priced out of central neighborhoods, and that reconnecting those residents to the market will require targeted affordable units and faster permitting, not just softer prices at the top.
Whether Palacios's snapshot marks a lasting reset or a brief period of rebalancing will depend on job growth, mortgage rates and how quickly new construction is absorbed. For now, his post gives buyers a bit more bargaining room and puts a spotlight on accurate pricing as Austin's housing market settles into what could be its new normal.
