Mayor Muriel Bowser may be heading for the exit in 2026, but she is still the name to beat in D.C. politics. A new poll has her leading the early mayoral conversation even as voters say crime, the cost of living and housing affordability are their biggest worries. With the open 2026 race already unfolding after Bowser’s decision last year to step aside, the numbers give both would-be candidates and residents an early snapshot of the landscape.
The survey, reported by NBC4 Washington, showed Bowser with 36 percent support, Ward 8 Councilmember Trayon White at 12 percent and Councilmember Robert White at 8 percent. According to NBC4 Washington, the poll was conducted from May 28 to 30 among 801 registered voters, who listed public safety and crime, the cost of living and housing affordability as their top concerns. The gap in name recognition suggests the race could shift quickly once candidates start consolidating support and introducing themselves to less tuned-in voters.
Bowser’s Standing and Voters’ Concerns
The findings track with other recent surveys that have put pressure on Bowser’s job numbers and spotlighted safety and housing as front-burner issues. A poll from The Washington Post and the Schar School in mid May put Bowser’s approval near 46 percent and flagged homelessness and crime as leading worries for residents, giving context to the new poll’s focus on public safety and affordability. Those issues have quickly become central policy battlegrounds for anyone eyeing the Wilson Building.
Public Safety in Focus
City leaders have already moved to respond on public safety. Earlier in the year the D.C. Council approved the Secure D.C. omnibus package after residents reported sharp increases in violent crime, including a roughly 39 percent jump and hundreds of carjackings, WTOP reported. That legislative push, paired with steady public anxiety about day-to-day safety, helps explain why crime landed at the top of voters’ lists in the poll. Campaigns that can credibly link enforcement, prevention and neighborhood services may find the most room to grow with undecided voters.
What Campaigns Will Need To Show
With televised forums and qualifying rules now in play, candidates can only coast on broad talking points for so long. They will be pressed for specific, local plans on rents, housing supply and street safety. As outlined in high-drama D.C. mayoral showdown coverage, the Fox 5 and Georgetown University forum created qualifying pathways that include polling at 5 percent, a threshold this survey suggests most campaigns have not yet hit. Bowser’s November announcement that she would not seek reelection has opened the field and made those benchmarks more consequential, as reported by The Washington Post.
Polls are snapshots, not predictions, and the field can shift quickly as contenders roll out detailed proposals and face off onstage. For now, the NBC4 Washington numbers give Bowser an early edge while underscoring that public safety, housing and the cost of living are likely to dominate the campaign conversation in the months ahead.
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