A fresh analysis from ADL-JLens is throwing a big bucket of cold water on calls to yank New York City pension money out of companies that do business with Israel, warning the move could cost retirees and taxpayers roughly $37.5 billion over the next decade. The study looked at two hypothetical large-cap equity portfolios, one that screened out those firms and one that kept them in, and found about a two-percentage-point annual performance gap that snowballs over time. Less growth in the markets would mean smaller pension balances for city workers and higher employer contributions coming straight from the city budget.
What the ADL-JLens analysis found
According to a press release from Business Wire, the report titled "The Impact of Israel Divestment on the New York City Pension Funds" compared 10-year historical returns of two hypothetical large-cap U.S. equity portfolios and found the exclusionary portfolio returned about 11.7% annually while the inclusive portfolio returned about 13.7% annually, producing an estimated $37.55 billion in forgone value when applied to the city's large-cap allocations. The analysis says that gap was driven in part by 47 companies commonly targeted by BDS campaigns, including Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Boeing and Bank of America, and that the difference compounds quickly over time.
How it would hit pensions and the budget
The report applied that modeling across the five public pension funds that serve city employees and projected losses of roughly $15.09 billion for the Teachers’ Retirement System, $10.91 billion for NYCERS, $7.13 billion for the Police Pension Fund, $3.02 billion for the Fire Pension Fund and $1.41 billion for the Board of Education Retirement System, about $37.54 billion in total. Barchart also notes any shortfall in investment returns would have to be offset through higher employer contributions from the city and taxpayers.
Political crossfire: Mamdani and the mayor's pledge
Mayor Zohran Mamdani has publicly backed measures that align with the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions movement and has urged stopping new purchases of Israel bonds, putting the administration at odds with some pension overseers and pro-Israel groups. JNS reporting notes Mamdani told reporters he does not think the city should purchase Israel bonds and that the issue has become a flashpoint between the mayor and the comptroller’s office.
Methodology and legal caveats
JLens and ADL stress the figures are illustrative and not investment advice; the report says its methodology was reviewed by legal and financial experts and quotes Columbia law professor Joshua Mitts as calling the findings "economically intuitive" and consistent with standard financial practice. Business Wire also notes the analysis relies on historical returns and hypothetical models, and different assumptions could produce materially different results.
What comes next for city leaders
The analysis lands as elected officials, trustees and unions wrestle with whether policy, politics or portfolio prudence should win when pension votes come up, and it is likely to be raised at upcoming board meetings and in City Hall budget hearings. Advocates for divestment argue the step is a moral and legal imperative; a human-rights group quoted in The Guardian has urged officials to stop new purchases of Israel bonds on those grounds. For now, the numbers give both sides a new, data-driven talking point as the debate shifts from campaign rhetoric to the boardroom.
