Texas is still near the front of the maternity ward, even as the state quietly joins the national baby slowdown.
From July 1, 2024, to July 1, 2025, Texans logged roughly 58 live births for every 1,000 women of childbearing age, compared with a U.S. average of about 53. That keeps Texas ahead of most other large states on fertility, but demographers say the apparent edge sits on top of a nearly two-decade decline in births statewide.
The ranking comes from a calculation of newly released Census figures that compare states and counties. It puts Texas at the top among big states and shows wide gaps inside the state, with Dallas, Harris and Tarrant counties landing among the nation’s highest birth-rate counties. The same Census snapshot also found that 10 of Texas’ 25 most populous counties have fertility rates above the statewide average, according to The Texas Tribune.
"Birth rates are declining in all states," Texas state demographer Lloyd Potter told reporters, noting that Texas’ relatively young population and larger share of Hispanic residents help explain why it still outpaces places such as California or New York. Potter added that the state’s higher fertility could soften some of the impact that slower immigration might otherwise have on the workforce, a point he raised in The Texas Tribune.
Nationwide Declines and Teen Births
National numbers show the broader trend is not on Texas’ side. The U.S. general fertility rate has been sliding for years. In 2023, the National Center for Health Statistics reported 54.5 births per 1,000 women ages 15–44 and documented steep drops in teen births. That mix - fewer births overall, with especially sharp declines among teenagers - helps explain why the long-term fertility trend continues downward, according to the National Center for Health Statistics.
Why Births Keep Falling
Researchers typically point to a now-familiar list of pressures: high housing and child-care costs, a thin social safety net for families, delayed marriage and childbearing, and broader access to contraception and sex education. Those forces, combined with shifting social norms around when and whether to have kids, add up to more than a temporary dip. They carry long-term fiscal implications for states and could slowly reshape school enrollment and tax bases, as outlined by The Pew Charitable Trusts.
Policy and Health Context in Texas
State policy complicates the fertility picture in Texas. The state does not require comprehensive, medically accurate sex education statewide and often limits classroom discussion of contraception, according to national trackers of sex-education law such as the Guttmacher Institute.
Texas also enforces strict abortion restrictions enacted since 2021 that have narrowed legal access to the procedure and reshaped care, as detailed in reporting from PolitiFact.
What It Could Mean for Jobs and Services
Demographers and budget analysts warn that if fertility keeps drifting down, states will eventually feel it in school enrollment, labor supply and tax revenues, even if migration props up the numbers for a while. For the moment, Texas’ relatively higher birth rate offers a bit of a demographic cushion, but experts say policy choices on child care, paid leave and housing will determine how long that cushion lasts.
Population researchers at the Population Reference Bureau highlight how those tradeoffs play out over time.
In short, the new Census snapshot leaves Texas in the unusual spot of beating many other big states on births while still moving in the same downward direction as the rest of the country. Lawmakers and city planners will be watching closely to see whether economic shifts or policy changes can slow the slide, and whether Texas’ demographic edge holds up as costs and family-policy fights roll on. The next clues will come with more detailed county-level releases and any fresh state moves on family supports.
