Gov. Greg Abbott is barely holding on to a lead over Austin state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, according to a new statewide poll that suggests the Texas governor's race is already turning into a nail-biter. The survey puts Abbott at 45% and Hinojosa at 42% among likely voters, with about 10% still on the fence. With months to go before ballots are cast, that slim gap signals a contest that is anything but locked down.
The poll, conducted July 15–17 among 1,048 likely Texas voters, found Abbott at 45% and Hinojosa at 42%. It carries a margin of error of ±3.4 percentage points, according to Texas Public Opinion Research. The firm, led by Luke Warford, released toplines Tuesday that also tested matchups for the U.S. Senate and attorney general.
How Voters Are Breaking Down
The crosstabs paint a picture of a sharply divided electorate. Hinojosa is ahead with independents, moderates, and Black and Latino voters, while Abbott shows stronger numbers among white voters and those with college degrees. The same survey finds Hinojosa leading Abbott on overall favorability by six points, and it identifies affordability as the top concern weighing on voters, as reported by FOX 4 Dallas-Fort Worth.
What This Means For The Fall
The tight margin lines up with other recent statewide polling and lands at a moment when TPOR's numbers suggest Democrats are competitive in several races, including an unexpected edge for Democrat James Talarico in the U.S. Senate contest, according to The Texas Tribune. The Tribune also highlighted the sizable chunk of undecided voters in TPOR's sample, a sign that plenty of Texans are still shopping before they commit.
Key Dates
Early voting in the 2026 general election is scheduled to begin October 19, with Election Day set for November 3. Those dates come from the state's election calendar published by the Texas Secretary of State.
On the ground, Hinojosa has been working suburban and Hispanic neighborhoods with local events and schools-focused stops - a strategy spotlighted at a May Dallas block party where she hammered Abbott on taxes. Abbott, meanwhile, is sitting on a clear fundraising advantage that points to heavy advertising and a robust turnout operation ahead. With roughly one in ten likely voters still undecided, both campaigns have a relatively short window to close the deal in what is shaping up to be a very close race.
