Greg Abbott’s bid for another term as Texas governor has suddenly become a one-point race, according to a new Fox News poll that puts the Republican incumbent just ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Abbott leads Hinojosa 50% to 49% among 1,006 registered Texas voters surveyed from Thursday through Monday, a result that falls comfortably within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3 percentage point margin of error. In other words, the headline is an Abbott lead, but the practical takeaway is a statistical tie, as El Paso Times reported.
The poll’s cross-tabs offer Hinojosa a potentially powerful coalition: She leads Abbott by 16 points among Latino voters, 21 points among moderates and 27 points among independents. She also holds advantages among suburban voters and Black voters, although those subgroup results can carry larger levels of uncertainty than the statewide number.
The result marks a sharp change from earlier statewide polling, though the surveys used different methods and should not be treated as a perfect apples-to-apples trend line. A June University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey had Abbott ahead 47% to 40% in a matchup that also included a Libertarian candidate, someone else and undecided voters, according to the project’s published toplines.
Abbott Still Has The Incumbency And Money Edge
A close poll does not erase Abbott’s built-in advantages. He is the incumbent, has maintained a substantial fundraising lead, and has relied on a lighter campaign schedule in July, while the contest still has months to run before voting begins.
Abbott has emphasized property-tax cuts through his taxpayer empowerment pledge and recently called for restrictions on artificial-intelligence data-center construction in rural neighborhoods. Hinojosa has framed the race around rising costs, public schools and what she calls an effort to put money into the pockets of working Texans, according to the El Paso Times’ account of the campaign’s response.
Texas Senate Race Is Tight Too
The same Fox News survey found Democrat James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, 51% to 48%. That three-point advantage is also within the poll’s margin of error, suggesting Texas voters may be looking at two statewide contests with unusually little daylight between the nominees.
Texas voters have until October 5 to register for the November 3 general election. Early voting is scheduled for October 19 through October 30, meaning the campaigns still have time to define the race before the first ballots are cast.
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