After two years of official declines, Los Angeles is bracing for its homeless count to creep back up, with local sources saying the latest point-in-time numbers could climb about 3.5 percent. That bump would nudge the city’s totals back toward 2024 levels at a time when funding shifts and program tweaks are already straining a fragile system. City officials and downtown residents alike say the new tally will heavily influence where limited housing slots, outreach teams and services land.
Sources told FOX 11 Los Angeles that the projected increase, which LAHSA was expected to release this week, includes people in shelters and those living outside, and that the unsheltered population alone could be up roughly 8 percent. Those numbers are tied to the combined estimate LAHSA is preparing to publish for both sheltered and unsheltered residents.
What officials are saying
Mayor Karen Bass told reporters she is “definitely concerned” the new count could show an increase, pointing to federal and state funding cuts, rising costs and gaps in services as likely culprits. In a recent statement, the mayor’s office said the city has reduced homelessness since 2023 and credited initiatives such as Inside Safe with moving people into interim housing, while warning that those gains remain fragile. FOX 11 Los Angeles reported her comments and the administration’s summary of recent placements.
Funding fight and legal fallout
All of this is unfolding against a tense funding showdown. In June, federal officials moved to suspend certain continuity funds for the region’s homeless services agency, and LAHSA responded by filing suit in an effort to block the cutoff. The legal fight threatens to disrupt subsidies and services that providers say are crucial for keeping people housed, according to reporting by the Los Angeles Times.
Downtown pressure: fires and visible blight
Neighborhood advocates say what they see on the street tracks with what the numbers may soon confirm. Around Pershing Square, residents report open-air drug use and mounting trash, while a run of fires at vacant properties on the 1200 block of South Hope Street has stirred fresh safety worries. Local coverage and department records show multiple recent structure fires on that block, including an early July blaze at 1224–1225 S. Hope St. that the Los Angeles Fire Department is still investigating. A pre-dawn blaze and department alerts have documented the incidents and neighbors’ concerns.
Why the point-in-time count still matters
The point-in-time tally is not just a yearly headline. LAHSA and its partner agencies use the combined sheltered and unsheltered estimate to steer resources, shape programs and set priorities across council districts. According to LAHSA, volunteer street observations are merged with sheltered counts and other data to build the official estimate that guides spending and policy. The Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority says volunteer data will be handed off to partners for analysis before the final results are released.
Legal backdrop
The lawsuit over the funding suspension, combined with HUD’s move to put money on hold, has added legal uncertainty to an already tight budget picture. Judges’ rulings and any interim orders will influence how quickly funds can reach frontline providers. Observers say that outcome could determine whether recent housing placement gains are maintained or start to slip once emergency and transitional subsidies face more pressure, as detailed by the Los Angeles Times.
What to watch: when LAHSA posts the official numbers, expect a neighborhood-by-neighborhood breakdown and heavy scrutiny from council offices and service providers. Some districts that posted earlier declines may still show progress, while downtown and other high-pressure areas could account for much of any rise, a pattern that residents and officials say will demand both quick responses and longer-term investment.
