Xavier Becerra holds a commanding 55% to 37% lead over Steve Hilton among likely voters in California's race for governor, according to a new poll, with just 7% of voters still undecided ahead of the Nov. 3 general election. The survey suggests Becerra has not just maintained but strengthened his position since the spring primary season wrapped up.
The poll, conducted by the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, surveyed 4,207 registered voters statewide, including 2,310 likely voters, from August 3 to 9. It carries a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points. The newspaper's report, written by staff writer Nicole Nixon, shows Becerra's advantage has grown since a May poll had him at 52% to Hilton's 31%.
Becerra Dominates Across Demographics
Becerra leads across virtually every demographic slice measured, with particular strength among women, younger voters and Black Californians, per the Los Angeles Times report. No-party-preference voters break for Becerra 58% to 30%, while Hilton is preferred by 91% of Republican likely voters and Becerra by 88% of Democrats. Voters in the Bay Area, Central Coast, Los Angeles County and San Diego County all favor Becerra, while Hilton leads in the Central Valley and North Coast/Sierra region, with Orange County and the Inland Empire also leaning his way.
Becerra's favorability sits at 49% favorable to 43% unfavorable among likely voters, a modestly positive rating. Hilton's numbers run in the opposite direction, with 39% favorable against 50% unfavorable, and no-party-preference voters rate him particularly harshly at 59% negative to 31% positive, according to the same survey.
Why Voters Are Choosing Sides
Among Becerra's supporters, 13% cite his status as a Democrat as their reason for backing him, while others point to his record on healthcare expansion and LGBTQ+ rights protections, and many expect him to fight the Trump administration if elected. Becerra has emphasized that stance directly, saying California will become the backstop for healthcare, and he points to his record filing more than 120 lawsuits against the first Trump administration during his tenure as California attorney general. A smaller slice of voters, including 4% of Latino respondents and 1% of likely voters overall, cite Becerra's Latino identity and immigrant background as a factor in their support.
On the other side, Hilton's supporters most often cite his position outside California's political establishment as their top reason for backing him, alongside his promises to cut taxes and reduce government regulation; 7% of his backers simply cite being Republican. Hilton is trying to appeal to independent voters concerned about homelessness and the state's high cost of living, a pitch that lines up with his broader deregulation platform, which as Hoodline previously reported includes a 10-year suspension of state business and environmental rules. His platform also calls for making Californians' first $150,000 in annual earnings tax-free, ramping up oil production in pursuit of $3-per-gallon gas prices, and slashing government regulations more broadly.
Two Very Different Résumés
Becerra, the Democratic candidate, previously served as U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary in addition to his stint as California attorney general. Hilton, the Republican in the race, has advised a prime minister in Britain and worked as a Fox News host before entering California politics. The two will meet in the Nov. 3 general election after Becerra finished first in the June 2 top-two primary with 28.1% of the vote to Hilton's second-place 24.7%, as Hoodline reported when Becerra pulled ahead on late mail ballots.
UC Berkeley political scientist Eric Schickler, whose institute conducted the poll, said Democrats enjoy a comfortable statewide edge — a dynamic reinforced by voter registration numbers showing Democrats hold a nearly 20-point advantage over Republicans statewide, according to the California Secretary of State. National handicappers including the Cook Political Report, Inside Elections and Sabato's Crystal Ball have rated the race Solid or Safe Democratic. The result also carries stakes beyond Sacramento: term-limited Governor Gavin Newsom, barred from running again, is considering a 2028 presidential bid, and a decisive Becerra win would cap his tenure with a Democratic successor in place.
Trump Endorsement a Double-Edged Sword
Hilton has leaned on an endorsement from former President Donald Trump, who backed him via Truth Social in April, but that support cuts both ways in a state where Trump remains broadly unpopular. When Hilton launched his general election campaign last month in Boyle Heights, he ran full-page newspaper ads directly asking voters, Can you be anti-Trump and still vote for me? as Hoodline detailed in its coverage of that rollout. Becerra, meanwhile, has also broken from some in his own party, publicly endorsing Proposition 36's tougher penalties for repeat theft and drug offenses even as outgoing Governor Newsom and other state Democratic leaders held back, and he recently appeared at the state Capitol to back Senate Bills 1164 and 1306 on voting access, moves Hoodline covered as part of his effort to energize progressive voters ahead of November.
