A new statewide poll shows Democrat James Talarico holding a four-percentage-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for Texas's U.S. Senate seat, with the survey also finding that a majority of Texas voters believe Paxton is corrupt. The Texas A&M Bush School and ReconMR poll, which surveyed 619 likely Texas voters from late July through July 30, found Talarico leading Paxton 47% to 43%.
The poll, first reported by the El Paso Times, marks a shift from June, when an earlier survey had the two candidates tied at 46% each. That earlier movement lines up with other recent polling: a July 15–17 survey of 1,048 likely voters by Texas Public Opinion Research also found Talarico ahead of Paxton, 45% to 40%, with 44% of respondents naming affordability as their top issue. TPOR's crosstabs additionally showed Talarico holding a nine-point trust advantage over Paxton specifically on lowering household costs.
The new numbers show a race splitting sharply along gender lines. Talarico led among women by 13 points in the latest survey, up from a nine-point advantage in June, while Paxton led among men by six points, down from his 10-point edge the previous month. Independent voters moved even more dramatically toward the Democrat, favoring Talarico by 23 points, 53% to 30%, compared with a 14-point lead in June.
Voters Question Paxton's Honesty
Beyond the horse-race numbers, the poll paints a rough personal picture for Paxton. Texas voters said he is corrupt by a 55% to 35% margin, and they broadly regarded him as not honest, authentic, or in touch with Texas values, according to the poll. His favorability rating stood at 40% favorable to 52% unfavorable, an improvement from June's 34% favorable and 52% unfavorable split, but still deeply underwater. Talarico, by contrast, had a 46% favorable and 39% unfavorable rating, and voters regarded him as honest, authentic, in touch with Texas values, and not corrupt.
Voters did credit Paxton with one trait Talarico lacks in their eyes: toughness. Texas voters regarded Paxton as tough while viewing Talarico as not tough, even as they said Talarico would do a better job addressing the war with Iran and keeping Texans safe by 50%. Clifford Young, cited in the poll's findings, said Talarico would do better on affordability, the Iran conflict, keeping Texans safe, and managing the water supply. Paxton held his own ground on border security, with voters saying he would do a better job securing the U.S.-Mexico border by 48%.
Cost of Living Still Drives the Race
Affordability remains the dominant theme of the contest. Texas voters said Talarico would do a better job lowering prices than Paxton by 51%, and 49% said he would better manage the state's water supply. That tracks with the inaugural Texas Pulse poll from June, which found that 61% of likely Texas voters ranked cost of living among their top two concerns, ahead of water supply at 33%, border security at 27%, and the war in Iran at 24%, according to ReconMR.
The economic framing was on full display Friday, when both campaigns rolled out dueling proposals. Talarico introduced a “New American Dream” platform built around universal child care and AI tax dividends, while Paxton unveiled a tax-break plan offering deductions tied to medical costs and first-time home purchases, according to the Washington Post. Paxton's plan reportedly includes a $50,000 homebuyer tax deduction, while Talarico's targets medical debt forgiveness and vocational education.
Base Turnout and Fundraising Loom Large
Talarico's standing among Black voters, a core Democratic constituency, appears steady following his primary win over Rep. Jasmine Crockett. A Texas Southern University survey conducted July 27–31 found 79% of likely Black voters in Texas backing Talarico compared with just 12% for Paxton, and only 7% said Crockett's primary loss made them less likely to vote, according to The Texas Tribune.
Talarico enters the fall with a substantial financial edge as well. His campaign raised $30 million in Q2 from nearly 780,000 individual donors, as per Hoodline, pushing his total fundraising past $70 million, a sum his team touted as a record for an election-year U.S. Senate quarter. Paxton, meanwhile, has faced continued scrutiny over a joint investigation by ProPublica and the Tribune reporting that he voted in six Texas elections over two years using a Collin County registration while residing at a Denton County property owned by a trust; his campaign has dismissed the report, while legal experts have noted the residency laws involved are complicated.
Debate Talks and a September Convention
Talarico formally challenged Paxton to three statewide televised debates in July, an offer Paxton's campaign accepted in principle while calling Talarico a “dangerous radical,” though no broadcasters or dates have been finalized. Paxton reached the general election after defeating four-term incumbent Sen. John Cornyn by roughly 27 to 28 percentage points in the May primary runoff, an outcome heavily shaped by an endorsement from former President Donald Trump. National Republicans have since scheduled an unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas for September 9–10, aimed at unifying the party and bolstering Paxton's campaign.
Talarico visited El Paso for a town hall at the Plaza Theatre on July 11, part of a broader statewide tour as he seeks to build on his polling momentum. The same dynamics showing up in the Texas A&M/ReconMR numbers, a widening gender gap, growing independent support, and persistent doubts about Paxton's honesty, are echoed in a separate Texas Pulse poll released the same day showing Republican Gov. Greg Abbott's lead over Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa shrinking to just one point, 46% to 45%, down from a six-point edge in June, according to Political Wire. Whether Talarico's fundraising and polling gains can hold in a state with a deep-red baseline remains an open question as both campaigns head toward the Nov. 3 general election.
