Minnesota's 134-seat House is deadlocked at 67-67, and the state Senate is split 34-33 in Democrats' favor, setting up a November election where control of the Capitol could come down to a small handful of districts and the millions of dollars already pouring into them. Statewide and legislative races are drawing huge sums of money this cycle, with outside groups spending freely on the governor's race and both parties racing to bank cash for a legislative fight that may again turn on a few hundred votes.
Outside Money Swamps the Governor's Race
As reported by MPR News, the Minnesota governor's race is attracting many millions of dollars in outside-group activity, on top of what the candidates themselves have raised. DFL nominee Amy Klobuchar has raised more than $13 million this year and had $3.5 million available to spend as of September 15, according to the outlet's reporting. Republican nominee Lisa Demuth has raised about $2.6 million, including $1.3 million from a public campaign subsidy, and had $618,000 available to spend as of the same date.
A group called Restore Sanity has raised $14 million and had $7 million ready to deploy, per the same MPR News account, with funding coming primarily from a national group largely backed by Richard Uihlein. Restore Sanity has spent more than $4.3 million boosting Demuth's candidacy while also spending $2.7 million against Klobuchar. On the other side, Alliance for a Better Minnesota has spent $1.3 million on digital ads critical of Demuth, while the DFL party has put roughly $757,000 into ads and materials supporting Klobuchar this month. Outside political funds are not subject to the contribution limits that bind candidates directly, and they are barred from coordinating with campaigns.
A Costly Fight for Attorney General, Too
The attorney general's race has become its own money magnet. DFL incumbent Keith Ellison, seeking a third term, has raised about $1.3 million this year and had $634,000 in reserve, the outlet reports. Republican challenger Ron Schutz has raised about $1.1 million and had most of his funds available for the campaign's final six weeks. Outside spending has been lopsided here too: a group called Minnesotans for Justice has spent more than $2 million on ads and text messages critical of Ellison, while Alliance for a Better Minnesota has spent $1.8 million against Schutz.
Legislature Control Comes Down to a Handful of Seats
Minnesota legislature control will be decided on the November ballot, and with the House tied 67-67, both parties are treating a small number of competitive districts as the whole ballgame. According to MinnPost, control may hinge on legislative districts where DFL and Republican voters are roughly evenly split. MinnPost has characterized the current House as evenly divided between Republicans and DFLers; separately, CBS News Minnesota reported in September 2024 that the DFL held 70 seats to Republicans' 64 and that the GOP needed just four gains to retake the speaker's gavel. Minnesota House races are considered more broadly competitive this cycle, and uncertainty has increased because of retirements thinning the incumbent ranks.
The 2024 cycle offers a comparison. The House DFL reported raising $5.6 million that year, CBS News Minnesota reported, while House Republicans reported a record-setting haul of $1.845 million collected year to date. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee added another $500,000 to bolster DFL candidates in the 2024 campaign, per the same report. A Star Tribune poll cited by CBS in 2024 showed 49% of voters approving of how Gov. Tim Walz and legislative Democrats had governed, against 47% who disapproved. State legislative campaign finance reports covering the fall stretch are not due for several more weeks, meaning the full scope of 2026 spending remains unknown for now.
Senate Races on the Ballot This Fall
Minnesota Senate seats are on the November ballot, and Grant Hauschild and other senators are facing races, MPR News reports. Past Senate contests illustrate how thin the margins can be. DFL Sen. Grant Hauschild of Hermantown won Senate District 3 — a sprawling 14,809-square-mile district covering the Duluth suburbs and Iron Range, according to MinnPost — with just under 51% of the vote in 2022 against Republican Andrea Zupancich, the real estate agent and mayor of Babbitt who lost that bid for his seat. Outside spending targeted Hauschild directly: Advance Minnesota spent $480,000 and Renew Minnesota spent $300,000 against him, while the DFL Senate caucus spent $78,000 on his behalf.
Other nearby districts have shown similarly narrow margins in recent cycles. Republican Roger Skraba won House District 3A by just 15 votes in 2022 before widening his margin to 56% in 2024, MinnPost reported, and DFL Sen. Rob Kupec of Moorhead won Senate District 4 with about 52% of the vote in 2022. Republican Sen. Jim Abeler of Anoka, along with GOP Sens. Julia Coleman of Waconia and Michael Kruen of Blaine, and DFL Sens. Judy Seeberger of Afton and Aric Putnam of St. Cloud, all represent seats that illustrate how competitive Minnesota's Senate map has become, with multiple regular Senate races on the ballot this fall. MinnPost has described Abeler's district, where he faces DFL-endorsed Angela Nelson, a principal at Otter Lake Elementary School, as one of this cycle's most closely watched legislative contests.
History Suggests the Money Will Keep Growing
Minnesota's appetite for legislative campaign cash is not new. In 2020, legislative races reported more than $23 million in total spending statewide, according to MPR News's earlier reporting, split between $15 million in Senate races and $8 million in House contests, with about two-thirds of that money spent by DFL candidates or groups trying to elect Democrats. Five Senate races that year had each surpassed $1 million in combined spending by mid-October, including a $1.75 million battle between Republican Warren Limmer and Democrat Bonnie Westlin in Senate District 34.
The 2024 cycle offered its own preview of how close a handful of districts can get. Republican Natalie Zeleznikar won House District 3B outside Duluth by 33 votes in 2022 and retained it by 121 votes in 2024, according to MinnPost. Nearby, DFLer Kari Rehrauer beat Republican Steve Pape by a single percentage point in House District 35A, and DFL House leader Zack Stephenson defeated Josh Jungling in House District 35A in 2024.
