Gov. Maura Healey leads Republican nominee Mike Minogue, 54% to 38%, in a new University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll of likely voters; 8% are neutral or unsure. Minogue’s share is up six points from August, when he was at 32% and Healey at 54%. The results show a change in the candidates’ measured support, but do not by themselves explain what drove it or whether it will last.
What Voters Say About the Candidates
First reported by the Boston Herald, the survey also measured voters’ impressions of each candidate. Healey was 40% favorable and 41% unfavorable, with 19% neutral and less than 1% unable to render an opinion—a net rating of -1. Minogue was 37% favorable and 39% unfavorable; 6% were neutral and 19% said they did not know enough about him to say, giving him a net rating of -2.
The UNH Survey Center described Healey’s job approval as “so-so”: 52% approved of her performance and 47% disapproved. Among those approving, 12% felt strongly, 33% somewhat approved and 9% leaned toward approval. Among those disapproving, 29% strongly disapproved, 9% somewhat disapproved and 9% leaned that way.
Voters’ Familiarity With Minogue
The favorability results also show a marked difference in how familiar voters are with the candidates: 19% said they did not know enough about Minogue to form an opinion, compared with less than 1% for Healey. That gap has narrowed in recent months as Minogue’s profile has grown, but the figures show that many voters still lack an opinion of him.
Other recent polling has shown Healey's numbers fluctuating but generally staying above water. A MassINC Polling Group survey from May found Healey at 39% favorable, as reported in The Mass Brief, while an Emerson College survey found her tied for the highest voter disapproval rating in the state, at 35%. The August UNH gubernatorial survey had put her at 50% approval and 48% disapproval, and several other polls this year have placed her approval rating anywhere between 35% and 50%.
Earlier Polls Offer a Broader View
Earlier hypothetical head-to-head polls gave Healey larger leads. A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll had her ahead of Minogue 54% to 30%, while a UMass poll showed her leading 53% to 33%, according to the Herald News. A separate University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB poll, cited by Reporter Today, showed the same 53-33 margin. Healey’s approval rating topped 50% in both the UNH and UMass polls. The Cook Political Report rates the Massachusetts governor’s race Solid D, per the Herald News analysis.
Timing of Earlier Polls
The UMass Amherst/WCVB poll cited above was conducted Aug. 5-12, before the Sept. 1 primary, according to UMass Amherst, making it an earlier snapshot of the matchup.
Not every poll tells the same story, though. A McLaughlin & Associates survey released 14 days earlier and reported by Massachusetts First found Minogue had cut Healey's summer lead by more than half with 54 days remaining before the election, and claimed the two were in a dead heat among the roughly seven in 10 voters who know enough about both candidates to form an opinion. That same release said independent voters view Healey's job performance extremely negatively and overwhelmingly oppose her reelection.
How Minogue Got Here
Minogue, a 59-year-old businessman and inventor, won the Republican nomination by defeating Brian Shortsleeve, taking 72% of the primary vote to Shortsleeve's 28%, according to Reporter Today. Healey ran uncontested in the Democratic primary, the Herald News reported. Heading into the general election, Minogue reported more than $8 million in cash on hand, compared with $6.6 million for Healey and $527,000 left over for Shortsleeve.
Minogue has proposed a gas-tax holiday when gasoline prices exceed $4 per gallon. MassTerList has also reported separately that Minogue is working to make opposition to the state's offshore wind push a central campaign issue against Healey.
Healey's Response and Reelection Bid
Healey has confirmed her own campaign plans directly, posting on X, “I'm running for reelection.” She's also touted recent legislative wins, writing on the same platform, “I just signed the Freedom to Read Law to keep book bans out of Massachusetts schools and libraries.” On the attack front, Healey has gone after Minogue over immigration enforcement, posting that “Mike Minogue stands with ICE, not with Massachusetts.”
The latest UNH survey puts Healey 16 points ahead in the head-to-head measure, even as Minogue’s share is higher than it was in August. The poll is one snapshot amid results that vary by timing and measure; the Cook Political Report rates the race Solid D.
