Georgia's two marquee 2026 races are telling very different stories heading toward November. A new statewide poll shows Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Ossoff holding a double-digit lead over Republican challenger Mike Collins, while the open governor's race between Keisha Lance Bottoms and Rick Jackson remains a virtual coin flip. The survey of 3,447 registered Georgia voters, taken September 15–18, carries a margin of error of plus-minus 2.7 percentage points.
In the governor's race, Republican Rick Jackson pulls 45% support to Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms' 44%, according to Atlanta News First, with 9% of voters undecided and 2% picking someone else or opting out entirely. That contest will decide who succeeds term-limited Governor Brian Kemp. Jackson, a healthcare staffing executive, won the June 16 Republican gubernatorial runoff against Trump-endorsed Lieutenant Governor Burt Jones after pouring more than $100 million of his own fortune into the primary, as Hoodline previously reported.
Gender, Race and Age Split the Electorate
The poll's crosstabs show a state divided along familiar lines. Jackson leads among male voters by 50% to 39%, while Bottoms leads among women by 49% to 42%. Bottoms draws 81% support among Black voters, while Jackson holds a commanding 62% among white voters, per the same survey.
Age cuts the race just as sharply. Bottoms leads among voters 18 to 29 with 54% support and among those 30 to 44 with 52%, while Jackson leads voters 45 to 64 with 50% and voters 65 and older with 56%. Among self-described independents, Bottoms edges Jackson 43% to 37%, though 17% of independents remain undecided in the governor's race.
Town Hall-Style Debate Invitation
Jackson has accepted an invitation to a town hall-style debate.
Jackson also filed a lawsuit against Jones over Georgia's leadership committee law and obtained a temporary restraining order.
Ossoff Holds Steady Double-Digit Lead
The Senate race tells a starkly different story. Ossoff leads Collins by 10 percentage points, pulling 51% support to Collins' 41%, with 6% undecided and 2% picking someone else. Nearly all supporters on both sides say they are locked in — 94% of Ossoff's backers and 96% of Collins' say they have made up their minds, leaving little room for movement before Election Day.
Ossoff's advantage is broad-based. He leads women 53% to 38% and men 49% to 45%, and pulls 83% support among Black registered voters. He also dominates younger voters, leading 67% to Collins' share among voters 18 to 29 and 58% among those 30 to 44. Ossoff narrowly leads voters 45 to 64, 47% to Collins' 46%, while Collins leads among voters 65 and older, with 51% support. Collins draws 57% support among white voters. Ossoff, who first won his seat in a January 2021 runoff with 50.61% of the vote against Republican incumbent David Perdue, becoming Georgia's first Jewish senator.
National GOP Weighs Its Bets
The lopsided Senate numbers are fueling a broader strategic debate inside the national Republican Party. Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Governor Kemp are scheduled to headline a joint Atlanta fundraiser for Collins Thursday, as party leaders decide whether to keep pouring resources into Georgia or shift money to other Senate battlegrounds, according to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Kemp endorsed Collins for Senate.
Trump's own standing in Georgia may help explain the Senate gap. Just 39% of Georgia registered voters approve of the president's job performance, with 23% approving strongly and 16% somewhat, while 60% disapprove, including 54% who disapprove strongly. Georgia voters also view both major parties unfavorably, with 55% holding a negative view of Republicans and 53% viewing Democrats unfavorably, per the poll. Registered voters in the survey identified as 36% Republican, 32% Democrat and 24% independent.
Runoff Rules Loom Over Both Races
Georgia's election calendar lists November 3 as Election Day, with a runoff date of December 1, according to the Georgia Secretary of State.
The stakes in the governor's race carry their own historical weight. If Bottoms wins in November, she would become the first Democrat to hold the Georgia governorship since Roy Barnes left office in 2003, ending more than two decades of continuous Republican control. Voters have until October 5 to register ahead of the November 3 election, with early in-person voting running statewide from October 13 through October 30, per the Secretary of State's office. The Bottoms-Jackson debate is scheduled for October 6.
