President Trump's approval rating has sunk to 38 percent among likely voters nationwide, while Democratic congressional candidates hold a lead of close to 9 percentage points over Republicans on the generic ballot, according to a new poll fewer than 50 days before the midterm elections. The survey found that likely voters disapproved of Trump's handling of every major issue included in the poll, from the economy to foreign wars.
The findings come from a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted September 8-13, which surveyed 1,503 likely voters nationwide using telephone interviews with live interviewers. Respondents were selected from a list of registered voters, with more than 96 percent reached on cellphones. The poll was weighted to account for underrepresented demographic groups, per the Times.
Voters told pollsters they trusted Democrats more than Republicans on a wide range of issues. The survey found Democrats favored on several major issues, the newspaper reported.
Voters Want a Check on Trump, Not More of Him
Asked what kind of candidate they wanted to see elected, respondents were asked whether they preferred candidates who would provide a check on Trump, candidates who support the president or candidates for whom a candidate's affiliation with Trump did not matter. The Times noted that Trump has lost public trust on the economy specifically and continues to face lingering unpopularity among voters, including frustration over his management of cost-of-living issues.
The new numbers echo earlier surveys that have examined Trump's standing this cycle. Hoodline previously reported on an Emerson College poll that put Trump's approval at 40 percent in August. Earlier coverage also discussed approval-tracking data.
Historical Precedent Points to Steep Losses
History offers a grim benchmark for a president polling this low heading into a midterm. According to historical polling compiled by Gallup, sitting presidents with approval ratings below 50 percent have seen their party lose an average of 37 House seats in midterm elections, compared with an average loss of just 14 seats when approval tops 50 percent. Since 1946, only two sitting presidents — Bill Clinton in 1998 and George W. Bush in 2002 — have seen their party actually gain House seats during a midterm, per Statista.
Trump has lived through this pattern before. His first term included the 2018 midterms, when control of Congress was at stake. The polling analysis also places this cycle in the context of earlier wave elections.
A Narrow House Majority, a Tougher Senate Map
The stakes of this polling are magnified by just how thin the current House majority is. Republicans hold a 218-214 edge heading into the midterms, according to Bloomberg Government. Sensing an opening, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee expanded its target map by 12 seats in August, bringing its total to 58 districts, including ones held by Rep. Lauren Boebert and NRCC Chair Richard Hudson. Still, roughly 45 House seats are described as decisive this cycle.
The Senate presents a starkly different picture for Democrats. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority there, according to the Council for a Livable World, and the Senate map is favorable to Republicans. That favorable map has not spared Republicans from internal turmoil: sitting Sen. John Cornyn of Texas lost renomination to a Trump-backed opponent this year, according to the Texas Tribune.
The polling shifts arrive against a backdrop of eroding public trust in political information more broadly, a subject examined in earlier coverage. Trump, for his part, has continued campaign efforts as Republicans seek to defend their majority.
