Democratic Harris County Judge nominee Letitia Plummer released an internal poll this week showing her leading Republican rival Orlando Sanchez 53% to 37%, a 16-point gap that her campaign is touting as proof of momentum heading into November. The survey, conducted over a week in mid-August among 600 likely general election voters, also found 9% of voters still undecided and more than 60% of respondents viewing President Donald Trump unfavorably.
The poll was conducted by Washington-based polling firm HIT Strategies, according to the Houston Chronicle. HIT Strategies principal Terrance Woodbury said Plummer's support was still growing and that Sanchez's political allies were deeply unpopular among Harris County voters, adding that a Plummer win would help power turnout for the entire Democratic ticket.
Political scientists are urging skepticism. Rice University's Mark Jones said partisan polls can be useful fundraising vehicles when their data reflects well on the commissioning candidate, noting the survey's results are plausible but were produced for a campaign with an express goal. University of Houston's Renée Cross went further, saying the poll's 16-point margin may be far-fetched given how slim Democratic victory margins were in the 2018 and 2022 county judge races.
A History of Nail-Biter Elections
That history is not abstract. In November 2018, Democrat Lina Hidalgo unseated 11-year Republican incumbent Ed Emmett by a margin of roughly 19,000 votes out of more than 1.1 million cast, a 49.8% to 48.2% squeaker that broke decades of Republican control over the county's top executive post, according to Ballotpedia. Four years later, Hidalgo won reelection against Republican Alexandra del Moral Mealer by less than two percentage points, about 18,000 votes, even though Mealer outspent her by millions of dollars, per The Texas Tribune. Hidalgo, who is not seeking a third term after eight years in office, leaves the seat open for the first time since her initial victory.
Cross said the poll has a decent sample size but lacks demographic data, and she still expects Plummer to win. She also said Sanchez's Republican affiliation hurts him among Harris County voters who are unfamiliar with him — and unfamiliarity is a real issue for both candidates. The same poll found about 49% of likely voters did not know Plummer, and 45% had never heard of Sanchez at all.
Sanchez Campaign Pushes Back
Sanchez's campaign disputed the numbers, saying Plummer's real support is likely below 50% and arguing that releasing paid internal polling data reflects growing nerves on her team. Sanchez campaign strategist Chris Beavers said the race is fundamentally about Harris County and accused Plummer's campaign of trying to reframe it as a partisan fight between Democrats and Republicans, arguing voters instead see the contest as a choice between competence and corruption.
Money has flowed toward Sanchez in the race's early going. Sanchez outraised Plummer in the first fundraising round after the primaries, and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said in 2025 he intended to spend $25 million to turn Harris County dark red and boost Republican nominees statewide. Cross said the broader political tide is still moving toward Democrats this cycle, even as Republicans pour resources into the county.
Plummer is a Democrat and former Houston City Council member; Sanchez is a Republican who also previously served on the Houston City Council and spent 12 years as Harris County Treasurer. The race sits alongside other recent flashpoints between the two campaigns, including a debate that collapsed after 10 minutes Monday, which was postponed due to technical difficulties after Plummer accused Sanchez of quitting the broadcast.
Harris County is the nation's third-most populous county, with more than 5 million residents, and it led the country in numeric population growth from 2023 to 2024 by adding 105,852 residents, according to CultureMap Houston. Whoever wins in November will preside over a five-member Commissioners Court overseeing an adopted budget of roughly $2.7 billion, giving the county judge substantial executive authority over one of the largest local governments in the country.
