San Diego County has proclaimed a local emergency, getting a jump on a fall and winter that forecasters say could bring one of the strongest El Niño events on record. County crews are already clearing storm drains, reinforcing infrastructure and adding emergency staff, bracing for heavy rain, repeated storms and flooding risks that officials warn could touch communities across the region.
The proclamation, announced Wednesday, allows County crews and departments to respond faster and more effectively to storm impacts, including flooding, landslides, debris flows and damage to critical infrastructure, according to the County of San Diego. The county said the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has put the odds of a strong El Niño event this fall and winter above 90%. Officials pointed to the January 2024 floods as a recent reminder of what severe storm events can do to San Diego communities.
The county's own SanDiegoCounty
account posted about the county's information hub on Wednesday.
How Strong Could This El Niño Get
The numbers vary depending on who's crunching them, but they all point in the same direction. A Sept. 10 outlook from NOAA gave the developing El Niño a greater than 90% chance of reaching very strong strength during fall and winter 2026-27, according to Times of San Diego. Separately, the article notes that state officials estimated a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event and a 75% chance it could reach historic strength this fall and winter.
A conflicting projection complicates the picture further: the Climate Prediction Center put the odds of a historic event — one that would exceed every El Niño dating back to 1950 — at 69% for the October-through-December window, per sacbee.com. Strong El Niño events are often associated with wetter conditions in Southern California and larger waves along the coast, though they do not guarantee a specific amount of rain or number of storms, as reported by Times of San Diego.
What County Crews Are Doing Right Now
County departments are preparing for weather-related emergencies. County departments have begun clearing storm drains, reinforcing infrastructure and bolstering emergency response staffing, and the county launched an El Niño 2026 online information hub with current weather conditions and resources for signing up for emergency alerts or obtaining sandbags, per KPBS.
Officials are advising residents to begin preparing now for the storms expected this fall and winter, the outlet reports. Separately, San Diego city crews began installing sand berms earlier this month on city beaches and along the Mission Bay shoreline to prepare for heavy swells and flooding.
Coastal Areas and Rising Tides
El Niño can raise sea levels along the Southern California coast by several inches, increasing the potential for coastal erosion and flooding, according to inewsource's reporting. Low-lying coastal areas including Imperial Beach, Coronado, Ocean Beach, La Jolla Shores and Del Mar were identified as particularly vulnerable in that same account. The projected peak high tide around Christmas Eve is expected to exceed 7 feet, with other winter peaks approaching that mark as well.
Lessons From the Last Big El Niño
San Diego has been through this before, and the historical record is sobering. During the 1997-98 El Niño, Lindbergh Field recorded 17.78 inches of precipitation — roughly 180% of normal — according to Times of San Diego. During a Feb. 7-8, 1998 storm, the San Diego River reached 12.5 feet at Fashion Valley, about 1.2 feet above flood stage; weeks later, on Feb. 24, 1998, the river reached 15.1 feet at Fashion Valley, roughly 3.8 feet above flood stage.
That same El Niño caused about $700,000 in storm damage at Oceanside Harbor, which closed twice due to high surf, and roughly $1.6 million in damage in Del Mar, the outlet's historical account notes. Potential impacts from the coming season include heavy rain, urban flooding, mudslides, coastal erosion, strain on stormwater systems, road closures and power outages, the county said. Extreme El Niño events more broadly can bring high waves, erosion, landslides, debris flows and structural damage in addition to flooding, per Times of San Diego's reporting.
State Action Adds to Local Preparations
The local emergency proclamation follows action at the state level: Gov. Gavin Newsom issued California's statewide emergency proclamation on Sept. 21. According to the Governor of California's office, the statewide proclamation directs state agencies to begin actions intended to reduce flood, landslide and coastal risks, including staging flood-fighting supplies and protecting infrastructure.
For now, San Diego County residents are being urged to use the county's new information hub to track current conditions, sign up for emergency alerts and find out where to get sandbags before the first storms of the season arrive.
