Michigan Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson holds a 46% to 39% lead over Republican U.S. Rep. John James in the race for governor, according to a new poll of 682 likely voters released in Lansing. The survey, conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications, carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, with 9% of voters still undecided a month before Election Day.
The poll, reported by Deadline Detroit, was conducted on October 1, five days before Benson and James faced off in a live televised debate hosted by WOOD TV8 in Grand Rapids, according to the station's broadcast of the event. The timing places the numbers just ahead of one of the campaign's most consequential moments, a stage where trailing candidates often look to shift momentum before voters start locking in their choices.
Benson's advantage is driven largely by overwhelming support among Black voters, who favor her over James by a staggering 73% to 6%, per the poll. She also leads comfortably among younger voters, topping James 45% to 17% among those ages 18-29 and 51% to 29% among voters ages 30-44. James, meanwhile, edges ahead among white voters by a narrow 44% to 43% margin and holds his strongest demographic with voters 65 and older, leading Benson 50% to 43% in that group. Voters ages 45-64 are nearly split, with Benson ahead 46% to 43%.
The same Lansing survey also measured President Trump's standing in Michigan, finding just 27% approval against 73% disapproval for his job performance. That figure looms over a race where James has leaned on Trump's endorsement after a bruising primary.
How the Candidates Got Here
Benson secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan's August 4 primary with 83.2% of the vote over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson, while James won the Republican nod with 50.1% against self-funded businessman Perry Johnson, according to Ballotpedia's election data. Benson entered the general election with a leading $6.4 million war chest after raising $5 million, Hoodline previously reported.
Both candidates have announced their choices for running mates for the joint general-election ticket. Benson tapped Michigan Senate Majority Leader Winnie Brinks of Grand Rapids, setting up what would be Michigan's first all-female ticket, while James selected State Rep. Jay DeBoyer of Clay Township, who chairs the House Oversight Committee, according to WDIV ClickOnDetroit.
An Open Seat With High Stakes
The governor's office is open because term limits prevent Democrat Gretchen Whitmer from seeking reelection. Michigan Republicans have not won a gubernatorial race since 2014, when Rick Snyder won a second term, according to Ballotpedia's historical data.
The outcome carries stakes beyond the governor's mansion. Michigan currently has divided government, with Republicans holding a narrow majority in the State House and Democrats holding a narrow edge in the State Senate. Control of both chambers is also on the ballot next month, meaning the governor's race could help determine whether either party secures full control of Lansing.
The ballot itself extends beyond the two major-party contenders. Three third-party candidates are also running: Donna Brandenburg of the U.S. Taxpayers Party, Douglas Campbell of the Green Party, and Anthony Hudson, who appears on the ballot as a Libertarian despite being disavowed by that party, according to CBS News. Absentee voting began September 24, and early in-person voting opens statewide on October 24, with CBS News reporting that 11% of poll respondents had already cast absentee ballots as of October 1.
