Jocelyn Benson is pulling further ahead of John James in the race to become Michigan's next governor, according to a new poll of 600 likely voters that shows her lead widening to roughly 7 percentage points. The survey found Benson backed by 51.4% of respondents to James's 44.5%, a gap that has grown since a similar poll taken just weeks earlier.
The poll was conducted Oct. 19-22 by the Glengariff Group, as reported by The Detroit News, and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. Among respondents who said they would definitely cast a ballot, Benson's advantage widened slightly to 7.7 points, with 52% backing her compared to 44.3% for James, according to the same report. The telephone survey reached 15% of participants through landlines and 85% through cellphones.
The race is open because Gov. Gretchen Whitmer cannot seek reelection in 2026 due to the state's term limits, per the Detroit News report on an earlier September survey. That earlier Glengariff Group poll, taken in early September, had shown Benson ahead by a narrower 4-point margin, meaning her advantage has roughly doubled in the weeks since.
Trump's Approval Rating Splits the Electorate
Presidential politics appear tangled up in the Michigan race. The October survey found 59% of respondents disapproved of President Donald Trump's job performance while 39% approved, according to the Detroit News. Benson won 80% of those who disapproved of Trump, while James captured 88.5% of those who approved of him — a split that suggests the governor's race is tracking closely with national political divisions.
Favorability numbers told a similarly close story for the two candidates personally. Benson drew favorable impressions from 37% of respondents and unfavorable ones from 30%, the Detroit News reported, while James had favorable marks from 35% and unfavorable marks from 37%. The poll's sample leaned slightly Democratic, with about 43% of participants saying they mostly vote Democratic, 41% mostly Republican, and 14% identifying as independents.
The same poll commissioned by WDIV and The Detroit News, detailed by ClickOnDetroit | WDIV Local 4, offered a more granular look at name recognition and voter commitment. That survey found Benson had name recognition among 88.4% of respondents, with 36.9% holding favorable impressions, 30.3% unfavorable, and 21.2% expressing no opinion; just 11.5% said they had never heard of her. James had slightly higher name recognition at 88.8%, with 34.6% favorable and 37.4% unfavorable impressions, 16.8% with no opinion, and 10.2% saying they had never heard of him.
Breaking Down the Head-to-Head Numbers
In the hypothetical governor matchup from that same WDIV/Detroit News survey, 43.7% of voters said they definitely backed Benson, with another 4.5% probably supporting her and 3.2% leaning her way. James drew 36.6% definite support, 6.8% probable support, and 1.1% leaning his direction. Other candidates registered 0% support, while 4% of voters said they were undecided and another 4% gave don't-know or refused responses, according to ClickOnDetroit | WDIV Local 4's reporting, which also noted the poll was a 600-sample live-operator telephone survey conducted by the Glengariff Group, Inc. with a 95% confidence level.
Other recent polls have shown Benson ahead by varying margins, underscoring just how consistently she has led throughout the fall even as the size of her edge has shifted from survey to survey. The Marist Poll, which surveyed 1,185 Michigan registered voters in mid-October using live phone interviews, text messages and online contact, found Benson with a 6-point lead and reported that 61% of likely voters statewide expected her to actually win the election. A Michigan State University/IPPSR survey released Oct. 26 found an even wider gap, with Benson leading James 53.3% to 40.9% among likely voters — up from a 9-point lead the same survey found back in August, according to MSU/IPPSR.
A Shifting Lead Through the Fall
Smaller leads showed up in other surveys taken earlier in the campaign. A September Emerson College Polling/Nexstar survey of 1,000 likely voters, which carried a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points, found Benson ahead 49% to 42% with 6% undecided, according to Emerson College Polling. An Oct. 1 Mitchell Research poll of 682 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points, put Benson's lead at 46% to 39%, with 9% undecided, as reported by Up North Live.
The race marks a notable shift from Michigan's last gubernatorial contest, when Whitmer defeated Republican Tudor Dixon by about 10 percentage points, 54% to 44%, in 2022, according to the Detroit News. Whether Benson can match or exceed that margin remains to be seen as the campaign heads into its final stretch, but the steady movement across multiple pollsters points toward a widening advantage for the Democrat with just a week until Election Day.
