Ohio has reported more than 150 flu hospitalizations in the past two weeks, while Christ Hospital says Cincinnati test positivity is already six times the level typically seen in early October. The hospital figures and local test results point to an early start; doctors are urging residents to get vaccinated before Halloween rather than wait for the usual winter rush.
The figures were reported by WLWT, which cited Dr. Thomas LaMarre, medical director of infectious diseases for the Christ Hospital Health Network. LaMarre said Hamilton County had seven or eight flu hospitalizations in the past week, and some Ohio hospitals had admitted flu patients to intensive care units. He also said vaccine uptake was below the level doctors wanted. “Flu has arrived earlier than usual this year,” he said.
A Season That Usually Peaks in Winter Is Arriving Early
Flu activity typically peaks in January or February, but LaMarre said this year's season could peak as early as November. The flu vaccine takes about two weeks to begin working, which is why doctors are pushing residents to get vaccinated before Halloween rather than closer to the holidays. The warning echoes a broader national pattern: an analysis by Epic Research across more than 310 million patient records found mid-September 2026 influenza visit rates reaching 140.6 encounters per 100,000 patients, the highest mid-September level in five years and roughly double the rates recorded at the same point in 2024 and 2025, according to earlier Hoodline reporting.
Last Season's Vaccine Mismatch Fueled a Brutal Winter
Much of the urgency traces back to how badly last season's vaccine matched the dominant strain. H3N2 dominated the 2024-2025 flu season, and the vaccine formula at the time was a poor match for it, LaMarre said. He added that the mismatched vaccine still reduced hospitalizations by almost 40%, but the poor match was a factor in how intense that season became. According to the station's report, the 2024-2025 season saw well over 300,000 hospitalizations, more than 20,000 influenza deaths, and 198 child influenza deaths, with LaMarre noting that influenza ranks among the top 10 causes of death in the United States.
Federal figures tell a similarly stark story. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates the 2024-2025 season produced roughly 51 million illnesses, 23 million medical visits, 710,000 hospitalizations and 45,000 deaths nationwide, classifying the season's overall severity as high, according to the CDC. The agency also recorded at least 280 pediatric flu deaths that season — the highest non-pandemic child death total since national tracking began in 2004 — with nearly 90% of eligible decedents not fully vaccinated, per the CDC.
This Year's Shot Targets the Strain That Caused Last Winter's Surge
Federal regulators updated the vaccine formula after the mismatch. In March 2025, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration recommended an A/Croatia/10136RV/2023-like H3N2 strain for egg-based vaccines for the 2025-2026 season, and an A/District of Columbia/27/2023-like strain for cell- and recombinant-based vaccines, according to the FDA. That recommendation is for the 2025-2026 season. For 2026-2027, the FDA recommended an A/Darwin/1454/2025-like H3N2 component for egg-based vaccines, according to its 2026-2027 vaccine composition guidance. LaMarre said preliminary data suggested a very good vaccine match, but the reported comment does not specify which season’s vaccine he meant.
CDC modeling shows just how much of a difference vaccination can make even in a mismatched year: the agency estimates that flu vaccination during the 2024-2025 season still prevented about 10 million illnesses, 5 million medical visits, 180,000 hospitalizations and 12,000 deaths nationwide. The CDC's interim guidance issued in September confirms that routine annual flu vaccination remains recommended for everyone aged 6 months and older, ideally administered during September or October. Infants under 6 months aren't eligible for the shot at all, leaving them dependent on maternal vaccination during pregnancy or community immunity for protection, per federal health guidance cited by a flu season guide.
How Ohio Tracks the Spread
Ohio's surveillance system doesn't track every adult flu case. Under state administrative code, individual flu cases in adults aren't mandatorily reportable, but hospitals must report all flu-associated hospitalizations and pediatric deaths to public health authorities, according to the City of Cincinnati Health Department. Since October 2025, the Ohio Department of Health has used an automated system called CliniSync to transmit hospital admission data for flu, COVID-19 and RSV directly from hospitals into public health databases, per Hamilton County Public Health. That hospital-focused tracking is an important way officials gauge how severe a season is becoming in real time.
Ohio’s Flu Season and Weekly Reports
The Ohio Department of Health says flu season can begin as early as October and continue through March, though sporadic cases may occur year-round. Its Respiratory Dashboard provides weekly statewide updates on flu hospitalizations and outbreaks, as well as information on COVID-19 and RSV, according to the Ohio Department of Health.
The current surge follows a rough stretch for the region. During the 2025-2026 respiratory illness season, Hamilton County Public Health recorded flu hospitalization rates two-and-a-half times higher than the county's five-year average, along with 3,900 emergency department visits for influenza-like illness across Southwest Ohio, according to 91.7 WVXU. Cincinnati's early surge mirrors what's been reported elsewhere this fall, including early flu fatalities and hospitalizations recently documented in western states and along the East Coast.
