Earlier lower clouds have cleared in Cleveland, and dry weather is expected for the rest of Monday as high pressure builds in from the south. Tuesday is still expected to bring the stretch’s highest temperatures before unsettled weather and a marked cooldown later in the week, the National Weather Service says. The latest NWS Cleveland discussion says clouds have cleared and dry weather is expected today.
Monday’s forecast calls for a partly sunny afternoon and a high near 78, with south-southwest winds. Winds of 6 to 12 knots are common through much of the night. The night should stay mild, with a low around 67 and a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms from roughly 1 a.m. to 4 a.m. Tuesday.
Tuesday Could Near Cleveland’s Heat Record
Tuesday is forecast to reach the low to mid-80s, making it the warmest day in the forecast period and bringing record highs into play. Rain chances are low late Monday night into early Tuesday and are focused mainly on northern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania; the better chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms is late Tuesday night into Wednesday. NWS Cleveland’s latest forecast discussion gives the updated temperature range and precipitation timing.
That forecast high would be just above Cleveland’s October 13 record of 82 degrees, set in 1969. If reached, it would give the day a late-summer feel for mid-October.
The warm spell is not limited to Cleveland: the National Weather Service lists an October 13 record high of 82 degrees for nearby Akron as well, also set in 1969. Toledo’s record for the date is 83 degrees, set in 1975, while Mansfield’s is 84, set in 1969—putting Tuesday’s forecast in a broader regional near-record context. NWS Cleveland’s regional record table compares the official climate sites.
For longer-term context, NOAA’s Ohio State Climate Summary reports that statewide temperatures have risen more than 1.5°F since the beginning of the 20th century. That statewide trend does not establish how Cleveland-area fall temperatures have changed specifically, and it does not explain this particular warm October forecast.
Rain Ahead of a Windy Weekend Cooldown
The better chance for widespread rain and thunderstorms is now expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday, with lower rain chances during the day Wednesday and highs in the 70s. High pressure should briefly build in late Wednesday into Thursday, bringing a short dry period before a stronger system approaches. The National Weather Service’s latest discussion describes the revised rain timing and brief midweek break.
Rain showers and strong winds are expected as a strong low-pressure system crosses the region Friday into Saturday. The coldest temperatures of the season so far are now expected Saturday and Sunday mornings, with chilly wind chills. The National Weather Service says the system’s timing and the severity of the cold remain uncertain as forecast models differ. NWS Cleveland’s latest discussion outlines the current outlook and uncertainty.
Lake Erie adds a local wrinkle to the cooling forecast. NOAA notes that near-shore locations are cooler in summer and warmer in winter than areas farther from the lake, while the NWS expects lake-effect showers to linger in parts of northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania into early Sunday. The NWS also says the storm’s timing and cold intensity remain uncertain, so conditions may vary across the region as the system develops. NOAA’s Ohio climate summary describes the lake’s influence on local climate.
Lingering lake-effect showers may continue across northeastern Ohio and northwestern Pennsylvania into early Sunday. High pressure is expected to bring drier weather Sunday, with temperatures beginning to moderate. The National Weather Service’s current outlook gives the updated shower and Sunday forecast.
