The ad money and the polling
An August survey by Texas Southern University found Rep. Henry Cuellar ahead of Republican Tano Tijerina in Texas’ 28th Congressional District, 45% to 34%. The poll also found that 23% of district voters who supported Donald Trump in 2024 planned to vote for Cuellar, and that 55% disapproved of Trump’s job performance while 36% approved, according to Texas Southern University.
The Congressional Leadership Fund is removing $3 million it had reserved for future advertising in Cuellar’s district and reallocating it to Texas’ 15th and 34th districts. The Texas Tribune first reported the change, citing a source familiar with the group’s spending; its report says the money is for advertising in those neighboring districts. Punchbowl News describes the move as support for defeating Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez and protecting Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz.
The two districts have different incumbents but were both carried by Trump in 2024: by 18 percentage points in De La Cruz’s 15th District and by 10 points in Gonzalez’s redrawn 34th District, according to The Texas Tribune.
The district Cuellar is defending
Republicans redrew the 28th District in 2025, removing territory around San Antonio and adding ground in Hidalgo County. The change moved the district from one Trump had won by 7 points to one he would have carried by 10 points; Trump’s 2024 win in Hidalgo County was the first there by a Republican presidential nominee in decades, The Texas Tribune reported.
Tijerina, a former Democrat who changed parties in 2024, is Cuellar’s Republican opponent. Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned with Tijerina and other South Texas Republicans before the spending shift was reported. Johnson told Fox News that the polling was wrong, according to The Texas Tribune. The same outlet reported that Cuellar says he has historically done better in his district than other state and national Democrats and draws support from Republicans and independents.
Reports differ slightly on CLF’s earlier spending in the 28th District. The Texas Tribune, citing AdImpact, put the amount at $4.6 million; Punchbowl News reported roughly $4.5 million.
