Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has opened up a seven-point lead over Republican former congressman Mike Rogers in the latest poll of Michigan's U.S. Senate race, with El-Sayed pulling 51% of likely voters to Rogers's 44%. The survey, conducted Oct. 26-27, marks a widening advantage for El-Sayed compared to earlier in the month and lands with just days left before voters decide one of the most closely watched Senate contests in the country.
The poll of 636 likely voters, which carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, was conducted by Mitchell Research & Communications for CBS News Detroit and other Michigan television stations. Three percent of respondents remained undecided, while third-party candidates each drew 1% or less, according to the outlet's report. El-Sayed also out-consolidated his own party, locking in 94% of Democratic voters compared with Rogers's 91% hold on Republicans.
Independents and Women Tilt Toward El-Sayed
The gap was most pronounced among specific voter blocs. Independents preferred El-Sayed to Rogers by a wide 52% to 38% margin, the CBS Detroit report notes, while women backed El-Sayed 56% to 39%. Rogers, meanwhile, held his own with men, leading 49% to 46%, and dominated among the oldest voters, taking 62% of those age 65 and older compared with El-Sayed's 35%.
Notably, the share of Michigan voters who said they had already cast a ballot or were voting absentee jumped to 28% in late October, up from just 11% earlier in the month, per the same CBS Detroit account — a sign that the electorate is locking in its choices even as the numbers continue to shift from poll to poll.
A Lead That's Grown — But Not Everywhere
El-Sayed's advantage has expanded notably within the CBS Detroit/Mitchell Research series itself: he led Rogers 45.6% to 41.4%, a gap of 4.2 points, in that pollster's Oct. 1 survey, before growing to the current seven-point spread. A separate Marist Poll conducted Oct. 15-18 found El-Sayed holding a seven-point lead among registered voters, matching the edge he held in September, and reported that 51% of Michigan likely voters expect him to win outright.
Other pollsters, however, paint a far tighter race. The same Marist survey found El-Sayed ahead by just two points among likely voters, 50% to 48%. Michigan State University's Institute for Public Policy and Social Research found an even narrower 2.5-point edge, 48% to 45.5%, in results published this week — a contraction from the 5.5-point lead El-Sayed held in that pollster's August survey. The Detroit News and WDIV-TV put the race at roughly six points, 51.4% to 45.1%, in polling conducted Oct. 19-22, with El-Sayed winning self-identified independents 45.5% to 40% and over 77% of voters under 30, while Rogers claimed nearly 54% of voters 65 and older, according to the Detroit News.
A String of Closer Surveys in Early October
Earlier October polling compiled by the Belleville News-Democrat showed the race within the margin of error across multiple surveys: a YouGov poll fielded Sept. 22 to Oct. 4 had El-Sayed up just 49% to 48%, Quantus Insights found him ahead 47.6% to 46.5% on Oct. 5-6, Insider Advantage showed a 48% to 46% edge Oct. 9-10, and Rasmussen Reports had El-Sayed leading 46% to 44% Oct. 12-14. The outlet also reported that the RealClearPolitics polling average for El-Sayed slipped from 3.4 points to 2.6 points over that stretch.
The IPPSR survey also found that roughly 38% of Michigan voters said a Muslim candidate would make them less likely to offer support, and that those voters were much less likely to back El-Sayed, according to the Michigan State University institute. The contest has drawn sustained national attention; the Washington Post has described it as one of the nationally watched Senate races of the cycle.
Taken together, the polling paints a picture of a race that different pollsters are measuring quite differently — some showing El-Sayed comfortably ahead, others suggesting a dead heat. What the surveys largely agree on is the shape of the electorate driving the contest: younger voters, women and independents breaking toward El-Sayed, while Rogers holds his strongest ground with older voters and men, as Michigan's Senate race heads into its final stretch.
