About 200 supporters packed into Brentwood Baptist Church in southwest Houston on Sunday to hear Democratic gubernatorial candidate Gina Hinojosa make her pitch in one of the final campaign stops she planned in Harris County before early voting began Monday. Gov. Greg Abbott, meanwhile, is expected to campaign across southeast Texas this week, with stops planned in Houston, Beaumont and Richmond.
Hinojosa told the crowd that this stretch of the campaign is the last and best chance her supporters have, according to Houston Public Media. The rally drew two prominent Democrats, U.S. Reps. Sylvia Garcia and Lizzie Fletcher, along with Harris County Attorney Christian Menefee; all three sat in the front row ahead of Texas's early voting window, which runs from Monday, October 19 through Friday, October 30 ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, November 3.
Education Takes Center Stage
A former Austin school board president who has represented District 49 in the Texas House since 2017, Hinojosa has made education the signature issue of her campaign, per Ballotpedia. She has promised to raise teacher salaries, pause the state's school accountability ratings system, and fire Education Commissioner Mike Morath, replacing the position with an educator. Houston Public Media's report notes that failed accountability ratings can trigger state takeovers of public school districts — the same mechanism that has kept Houston ISD under state control since 2023, with Commissioner Morath indicating in recent comments that the district may soon be allowed to exit state intervention.
That takeover remains a flashpoint across Harris County. The Texas Education Agency installed a state-appointed Board of Managers and Superintendent Mike Miles over Houston ISD in June 2023, and Morath later extended the intervention authority through at least June 1, 2027, according to Hoodline reporting. Elected HISD trustees have remained sidelined ever since, while more than 10,000 employees have departed the district since the takeover began, including over 4,000 staff exits in June 2024 alone — triple the district's five-year monthly average amid budget reductions. A recent takeover commission report has even called for limits on state control over the district.
A Steep Financial and Historical Climb
Abbott is seeking a record fourth term, and Houston Public Media notes he first won the governorship by 21 percentage points and has won every reelection bid since by at least 10 points. If he wins again, Abbott would become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing former Gov. Rick Perry's 14-year tenure, according to Wikipedia's election tracker. Abbott has also said Texans react very negatively to Hinojosa once they learn about her, the Houston outlet reported.
The financial gap between the two campaigns is stark. Abbott outspent Hinojosa by tens of millions of dollars, Houston Public Media reported, and separate campaign finance disclosures show just how lopsided the spending has become: Abbott spent $69.33 million between July 1 and September 24, compared with Hinojosa's $12.12 million, according to KHOU. Abbott entered the year with $105.7 million in cash on hand across his candidate and PAC accounts, while Hinojosa had less than $1 million after launching her campaign in late 2025, the Texas Tribune reported.
Polling Shows a Split Electorate
Statewide, a Marist poll showed Hinojosa trailing Abbott by five points, per Houston Public Media's account. But the picture looks different in Harris County: a University of Houston Hobby School of Public Affairs survey showed Hinojosa leading by 16 points among likely voters there, with a double-digit margin among Latino and Black voters even as Abbott holds a slight edge among white voters in the county.
Rice University political scientist Mark Jones told Houston Public Media that Hinojosa's Harris County lead is not large enough on its own to ensure a statewide win. If Abbott performs in Harris County as the poll indicates, Jones said, he should remain well positioned to win statewide — albeit by a much smaller margin than in 2022, 2018 or 2014.
Supporters See Momentum, Others See the Odds
Chris Feldman, a lawyer and lifelong Democrat living in central Houston, told the outlet there is real momentum and energy building around Hinojosa's campaign. Michelle White, who traveled from Pearland to attend the southwest Houston rally, said she believes unhappy Republicans may be ready to oust Abbott over the economy.
Still, the history looms large. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office in more than 30 years, and Ann Richards was the state's last Democratic governor, according to Hoodline's coverage of former Richards staffers rallying for Hinojosa in Travis County. Whether turnout in Harris County and the suburbs during the two-week early voting stretch can meaningfully narrow Abbott's historical statewide margins remains an open question for political analysts as both campaigns make their closing arguments.
