Arizona home values have climbed more than $150,000 since before the pandemic, yet one Phoenix house flipper says turning a profit on renovated homes has never been harder. Courtney Rust, who flips homes through her business Lady House Buyer, says the math behind a successful flip has shifted dramatically even as property values have recently dipped across the state.
Rust spoke with KJZZ on Oct. 29, where she described a Phoenix market where values have risen by more than $150,000 since before the pandemic, according to Zillow figures cited in that interview. Despite that growth, Rust said the formula for a profitable flip comes down to the basics: “buying it right and then knowing what you can actually sell it at.”
A Six-Year Veteran Calls This the Toughest Stretch Yet
Rust has flipped houses for six years, after a career as a wardrobe and props stylist for commercial productions in Chicago, where she lived for 15 years before relocating to Arizona. She picked up the flipping trade by listening to real estate podcasts during the pandemic, and now typically works in the $1 million to $2 million range. Of the current Phoenix climate, she said flatly that out of the six years she's done it, it's definitely the toughest.
The twist, Rust explained, is that the two halves of the flipping equation are moving in opposite directions. Buying has gotten easier because the market has tilted toward buyers, giving her more leverage to find deals. But offloading a finished product is another story entirely — as she put it, it's easier to buy deals now, but it's harder to sell.
Why Selling Has Become the Harder Half of the Equation
Part of the challenge, per Rust, is that Phoenix buyers now have plenty of options and have become picky, forcing flippers to match finishes carefully, price accurately, and make their renovated homes just slightly better than the competition to stand out. That dynamic plays out against a backdrop of a highly competitive Phoenix flipping market crowded with investors, even as Rust noted the city's dry weather and strong trade workforce as advantages that still make Arizona an appealing place to flip.
The broader numbers back up the squeeze Rust describes. The typical home value in the Phoenix metropolitan area fell to $440,821 in September, a 1.1% drop from a year earlier and a 0.4% decline from August, according to AZ Big Media. The outlet also reported that Phoenix-area home sales dropped 5.1% year over year in September even as inventory rose 4.4%, giving buyers more choices and more negotiating power.
Mortgage Rates and a Shifting Market Clock
Rising borrowing costs have added another layer of pressure. Mortgage rates climbed from 6.66% in late August to 7.40% on Oct. 8, AZ Big Media reported in a separate piece on Realtor.com's quarterly data. That same report classified both the Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler and Tucson metro areas as balanced markets shifting toward buyers in Realtor.com's third-quarter Market Clock. Statewide, the average Arizona home value stood at $416,733 as of Sept. 30, down 1.0% over the past year, according to Zillow.
Despite the cooling values, Phoenix remains a magnet for flippers. Rust said Phoenix is still one of the top five cities in the country for home flippers, even as profits nationally have declined in recent years. National data from ATTOM supports that broader decline: the typical U.S. flip earned a 21.5% profit margin in the second quarter of 2026, down from 25.7% in the first quarter and 27.6% a year earlier, with typical gross profit falling to $60,526 from $71,000 the prior year. Flips also made up a shrinking share of overall sales, just 6.2% of all U.S. home sales in that quarter, down from 8% the quarter before.
Phoenix Still Leads the Nation in Flipping Activity
Even with thinner margins, Phoenix posted an 8.9% home-flipping rate in the second quarter, behind Cleveland, Columbus, Memphis and Dallas among the large metro areas ATTOM tracked. Arizona as a whole ranked second nationally in flipping rate behind Ohio, and ahead of Nevada and Texas. The typical flip nationally took 161 days from purchase to resale, per ATTOM's data, a modest improvement from 165 days the quarter before.
Not every market is created equal for flippers chasing returns. ATTOM found that homes purchased between $100,000 and $200,000 delivered the strongest typical margins nationally, at 28%, in the second quarter. And geography matters enormously: Pittsburgh posted an 85.9% gross flipping margin among major cities in the first quarter, according to Quartz, while Austin flippers saw a typical return of just 2% over the same period.
Finding Deals Through Wholesalers, Instagram and Off-Market Tips
Sourcing properties worth flipping has become its own skill. Rust finds potential houses through MLS listings, wholesalers, direct outreach to sellers, Instagram, and realtors who bring her off-market properties, saying she gets a lot just from Instagram. Wholesalers, she explained, typically assign or exchange purchase contracts to connect sellers with buyers like her, and realtors offering off-market deals tend to sell at a discount, she said.
Once a property is in hand, Rust relies on comparable properties to guide both her renovation choices and her eventual asking price, because the finished home has to appraise at a value the comps can support — in her words, “that house has to appraise.”
Rust also noted that Arizona allows LLCs to be formed more easily than in some other states, a factor she said shapes how investors like her structure their flipping businesses. Between tightening margins, pickier buyers and a market she calls the toughest she's seen in six years, Rust's experience offers a window into how Phoenix's real estate professionals are adapting to a housing market that looks very different than it did just a few years ago.
