Rain chances rise later in the week
Monday may start with patchy frost before turning sunny, with a high near 61. Tuesday is forecast to be clear and warmer, reaching about 67, followed by a mostly sunny Veterans Day with a high near 61, according to the National Weather Service. The forecast becomes less settled Wednesday night, when showers may develop. Thursday’s high is expected to be around 53, with a slight chance of rain and snow Thursday night into early Friday. Friday’s high is forecast near 47.
Frost could affect both mornings
For Dayton, the National Weather Service forecast calls for a chance of patchy frost between 7 and 8 a.m. Saturday, with another chance after 3 a.m. Sunday. Saturday night’s low is forecast near 32, and frost is expected to be widespread before 9 a.m. Sunday. People with cold-sensitive plants may want to cover them or bring them indoors.
How this compares with Dayton’s usual first freeze
For historical context, National Weather Service Wilmington’s 1991–2020 climatology lists Oct. 25 as the normal date of Dayton’s first 32°F reading, and Nov. 7 as the date by which that reading has occurred in nine years out of ten. The agency’s records show Dayton’s first fall 32°F reading has ranged from Sept. 21 to Nov. 25, illustrating year-to-year variation. These dates provide a range, not by themselves evidence of a trend beyond the 1991–2020 normal, according to the National Weather Service Wilmington, Ohio.
Why frost risk can vary by location
A city forecast does not necessarily describe conditions at every neighborhood or plant site. Ohio State University Extension notes that air measured at the standard five-foot height can be several degrees warmer than ground-level temperatures, so frost conditions may vary across the Dayton area.
A dry Saturday precedes a sunnier Sunday
Saturday is forecast to stay dry under mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures rising from the low 40s to a high near 54. West winds are expected at 6 to 10 mph. Sunday should be sunny, with a high near 58 and southwest winds of 5 to 14 mph, gusting up to 24 mph, according to the National Weather Service.
